US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

Advanced Goods Trade Gap (billions)  

 Tuesday, April 28 at 8:30am ET                              Actual        

              Median                                  Mar20   Feb20   Jan20  

Gap          -$54.3b                                     -- -$59.9b -$65.9b

     Comments: The advanced goods trade gap is expected to contract to -$54.3b,

which would mark the third straight month of decreases in the deficit.          

Conference Board Consumer Confidence (index)

 Tuesday, April 28 at 10:00am ET

                                                             Actual

                                 Median                Apr20  Mar20  Feb20  

Index                              87.2                   --  120.0  132.6   

     Comments: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to

fall to 87.2 in April, down from March's 120.0, as consumers continue to shift

their expectations in the wake of Covid-19's rolling economic fallout. 

Q1 GDP (advance estimate)

 Wednesday, April 29 at 8:30am                               Actual        

                          Median                         Q1(a)   Q4     Q3   

GDP                        -3.8%                          --  +2.1%  +2.1%      

Price Index                +1.0%                          --  +1.3%  +1.8%   

     Comments: U.S. Q1 GDP is expected to contract with markets calling for a

-3.8% decline amid social distancing guidelines and business closures.

Uncertainty stemming from the virus likely caused consumer spending and business

investment to weaken dramatically, and exports are expected to have dropped off

as global trading partners enforced trade restrictions on food and medical

supplies in March. Residential investment and government spending could be

potential bright spots as the U.S. federal government has already doled out more

than USD2 trillion in coronavirus relief funds to households and businesses in

March.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, April 30 at 8:30am ET                             Actual

                   Median                              Apr25  Apr18  Apr11      

Claims             3.500m                                 -- 4.427m 5.237m      

     Comments: Initial jobless claims are expected to grow by 3.500 million. The

surge in recent jobless claims could be past its peak, with the most recent

4-week moving average hovering around 5.8 million, though some economists say a

backlog of unemployment filers could cause another spike in the weeks ahead. 

Personal Income (percent change)

 Thursday, April 30 at 08:30am ET               

                                                             Actual        

                          Median                       Mar20  Feb20  Jan20    

Personal income            -1.5%                          --  +0.6%  +0.6%    

Current dollar PCE         -0.1%                          --  +0.2%  +0.2%

Total Price index          -1.8%                          --  +0.1%  +0.1%    

Core PCE price index       -0.1%                          --  +0.2%  +0.2%    

     Comments: Personal income in March is expected to drop by -1.5% m/m, the

first contraction since November 2015 when personal income fell by -0.1%.

Current dollar PCE is expected to post a -0.1% decrease. The total price index

is also expected to drop by -1.8% with the core PCE price index registering a

-0.1% decline.

MNI Chicago PMI (index)

 Thursday, April 30 at 9:45am ET                         

                                                             Actual

                    Median                             Apr20  Mar20  Feb20      

Index                 37.7                                --   47.8   49.0    

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI for April is expected to drop to 37.7, a loss

of -10.1 points from March's 47.8 reading in what would be the lowest reading

since March 2009 when the index registered 33.0.

ISM Manufacturing Index (index)

 Friday, May 1 at 10:00am ET

                                                            Actual

                                 Median               Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    

Activity Index                     36.7                  --   49.1   50.1       

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to drop to 36.7,

deepening its fall into contractionary territory amid nation-wide shutdowns and

global supply chain disruptions. This would mark the lowest reading since

January 2009, during the global financial crisis, when the index reached 36.6.

Construction Spending (percentage change)

 Friday, May 1 at 10:00 ET

                                                           Actual

                                 Median              Mar20  Feb20  Jan20  

Total Spending                    -3.6%                 --  -1.3%  +2.8%  

     Comments: Construction spending for March is expected to show a -3.6% m/m

drop, which would be the largest decrease since January 2011 when spending fell

-3.8%.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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