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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the
key elements behind the median forecasts.
Existing Home Sales for May (millions)
Monday, June 22 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Sales 4.15m -- 4.33m 5.27m
Comments: May existing home sales are expected to drop further to a 4.15
million annualized pace from 4.33 million in April, extending the sharp slowdown
that began in March. The pending home sales index, which leads existing home
sales by roughly a month, declined sharply in March and April, but mortgage loan
applications rebounded in May.
IHS-Markit PMIs (index)
Tuesday, June 23 at 9:45am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun20(f) May20 Apr20
Manufacturing 47.8 -- 39.8 36.1
Services 44.8 -- 37.5 26.7
Comments: U.S. manufacturing activity likely contracted at a slower
rate in June, with markets expecting the IHS-Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI to
increase to 47.8 from May's 39.8 reading. Last month's 3.7-point rebound still
signaled the second-steepest deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions
since 2009, suggesting a potentially rocky recovery.
U.S. service-sector activity also showed signs of improvement in June,
though should still signal contraction. Markets expect June's IHS Markit Flash
U.S. Services PMI to rise to 44.8 following May's 37.5 reading. Activity still
fell sharply last month, declining at the second-fastest rate since 2009.
New Home Sales (thousands)
Tuesday, June 23 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Sales 630k -- 623k 619k
Comments: May new home sales are expected to rebound to 630,000 from
April's 623,000 annualized pace.
Durable Goods Orders (percent change)
Thursday, June 25 at 8:30am ET
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
New orders -12.0% -- -17.7% -16.7%
Ex trans +3.0% -- -7.7% -1.8%
Comments: The May durable goods report is expected to show new orders
dropping by another -12.0% after falling -17.7% in April and -16.7% in March,
record falls in the history of the Census Bureau's monthly report. Boeing orders
were zero in April while industrial production for durable goods and regional
manufacturing surveys rebounded in the month. Excluding transportation, new
durable goods orders for May are expected to rise by +3.0%.
Q1 GDP (final estimate)
Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am (ET) Actual
Median Q1(f) Q1(p) Q4
GDP -5.0% -- -5.0% +2.1%
Price Index +1.4% -- +1.4% +1.3%
Comments: The final estimate for U.S. Q1 GDP is expected to remain
unchanged from its second estimate, dropping by -5.0%. The GDP price index is
also expected to remain unchanged from the second estimate, climbing by +1.4%.
Initial Jobless Claims (millions)
Thursday, June 25 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun20 Jun13 Jun06
Claims 1.3m -- 1.5m 1.5m
Comments: Jobless claims filed through June 20 likely fell to 1.3 million
after coming in at a higher-than-expected 1.5 million for week ending June 13.
Jobless claims should continue to fall in the coming weeks, but gradual state
re-openings and state backlogs will put upward pressure on initial filings.
Advanced Goods Trade Gap (billions)
Thursday, June 25 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Gap -$68.3b -- -69.7b -$b
Comments: The advanced goods trade gap (census basis) is expected to shrink
a tad to -$68.3 billion. Exports likely rebounded as businesses reopened across
the country.
Personal Income (percent change)
Friday, June 26 at 08:30am ET
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Personal income -5.8% -- +10.5% -2.2%
Personal spending +8.7% -- -13.6% -6.9%
Total Price index flat -- -0.5% -0.2%
Core PCE price index flat -- -0.4% flat
Comments: Personal income in May is expected to drop by -5.8% in what would
be the largest m/m contraction ever recorded since the report's inception in
1959 after April's record-setting jump. Personal spending is expected to rebound
by +8.7% as the country reopened. The total price index is expected to be flat
after falling for two months with the core PCE price index also flat after
falling -0.4% in April.
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers
Friday, June 26 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun20(f) May20 Apr20
Consumer Sent 78.9 -- 72.3 71.8
Comments: U.S. consumer sentiment likely rose to 78.9 in June, unchanged from
the preliminary estimate. This would mark a second straight gain, by 6.6 point
from May's 72.3 reading. Consumer sentiment is expected to rebound further as
the businesses reopen, though few consumers anticipate the reestablishment of
favorable economic conditions anytime soon, survey chief Richard Curtin said in
the June preliminary report.
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.