US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 14/17:06 EST Sep 14

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.      

Empire State Index for September (diffusion index)                       

 Friday, September 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         

                 Median        Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17 

 Empire Index     19.0      10.5 to 20.0                --   25.2    9.8 

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall back to a      

still-strong reading of 19.0 in September after surging to 25.2 in       

August.                                                                  

Retail and Food Sales for August (percent change)                        

 Friday, September 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         

               Median       Range                    Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 

 Retail Sales   +0.1%    -0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.6%  +0.3% 

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.9%                 --  +0.5%  +0.1% 

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in August after a  

surprise 0.6% increase in July, as auto sales were soft in part due to   

the hurricane-affected areas. The impact of Hurricane Harvey at the end  

of the month should be seen in several retail categories, but the real   

impact will likely be seen with September data. AAA reported that        

gasoline prices rose in mid-August from one month earlier after declines 

in recent months, which should offer some support to the ex-motor        

vehicles number, which is seen rising 0.5%.                              

Industrial Production for August (percent change)                        

 Friday, September 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 

 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -1.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.2%  +0.4% 

 Cap Util      76.8%     75.6% to 77.0%                 --  76.7%  76.7% 

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% in August  

after a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 36,000 

in August, while auto production jobs rose by 14,000 and the factory     

workweek declined to 40.7 hours from 40.9 hours in July. The ISM         

production index rose to 61.0 in August from 60.6 in the previous month. 

Utilities production is expected to softer in the month after a 1.6%     

July gain, as cooler weather reduced electricity use, while mining       

production is forecast to weaken after rising in the previous four       

months. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.8% from 76.7% in  

July.                                                                    

Business Inventories for July (percent change)                           

 Friday, September 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

              Median           Range                 Jul17  Jun17  May17 

 Inventories   +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.5%  +0.3% 

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.2% in July,   

in line with an MNI calculation. Factory inventories were already   

reported as up 0.2% in the month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.6%  

and the advance report pointed to a 0.2% decline for retail inventories. 

Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a 0.2% increase for         

business inventories. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.3% and   

wholesale sales fell 0.1%, while retail trade sales rose 0.6% in the     

advance retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.3% gain in 

business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales       

number.                                                                  

University of Michigan Survey for September (preliminary)                

 Friday, September 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Sep17p  Aug17  Jul17 

 Consumer Sent    96.0     92.7 to 98.5                 --   96.8   93.4 

     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to 

fall to 96.0 in early September from 96.8 in August, with the impact of  

Hurricane Harvey seen in the data.                                       

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com