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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 6/16:06 EST Oct 6
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 7 week                                
 Thursday, October 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                  Median         Range               Oct07  Sep30  Sep23
 Weekly Claims     252k        250k to 275k             --   260k   272k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 8,000 to 252,000 in the October 7 week after a 12,000 decease in the 
previous week. The levels of initial and continuing filings remain      
elevated, particularly in the hurricane-impacted regions, but should    
trend lower as those impacts begin to level the data. The four-week     
moving average would fall by 7,250 in the coming week as the 281,000    
level in the September 9 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the
MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                     
Producer Price Index for September (percent change)                     
 Thursday, October 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Final Demand     +0.4%     +0.2% to +0.5%              --  +0.2%  -0.1%
 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%              --  +0.1%  -0.1%
     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.4% in September   
after softer-than-expected readings in August. The impact of the        
hurricanes should again be seen in energy prices, particularly gasoline 
prices, while food prices are expected to rebound after a substantial   
1.3% drop in August. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast  
to post a 0.2% gain after a below-expectation 0.1% increase in the      
previous month.                                                         
Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)                           
 Thursday, October 12 at 2:00 p.m. ET (date may change)  Actual:        
             Median           Range              Sep17    Aug17    Sep16
 Balance     -$3.0b      -$3.0b to -$3.0b           -- -$107.7b  +$33.5b
     Comments: The Treasury statement for September, and FY 2017, should
show some deterioration from the previous year. For September           
specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and outlays for 
hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax     
receipts. Analysts expect a $3 billion deficit for the September tax    
month, down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September 2016.             
Retail and Food Sales for September (percent change)                    
 Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median       Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Retail Sales   +1.5%    +0.7% to +2.2%                 --  -0.2%  +0.3%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.8%    +0.6% to +1.7%                 --  +0.2%  +0.4%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 1.5% in          
September, due to both a strong recovery in vehicle sales and           
hurricane-related increase in gasoline prices, as AAA reported that     
gasoline prices rose solidly in mid-September from one month earlier.   
Retail sales are expected to rise 0.8% excluding motor vehicles after   
August's modest 0.2% gain, owing mostly to the gasoline jump and to     
building materials sales after the storms.                              
Consumer Price Index for September (percent change)                     
 Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 CPI           +0.6%     +0.5% to +0.7%                 --  +0.4%  +0.1%
 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +0.1%
     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.6% in September following a
0.4% energy-related rise in August. Analysts expect energy prices to    
move even higher after August's 2.8% surge, as the hurricanes impact,   
particularly on gasoline, continued. The core CPI is forecast to rise   
0.2% for a second straight month.                                       
Business Inventories for August (percent change)                        
 Friday, October 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17
 Inventories   +0.5%       +0.3% to +0.7%               --  +0.2%  +0.5%
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in August.
Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.4% in the month, while
wholesale inventories rose 0.9% and the advance report pointed to a 0.7%
gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks   
for a 0.7% increase for business inventories, so the mediate forecasts  
suggest a downward revision to retail inventories from the advance      
estimate. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.5% and wholesale    
sales surged by 1.7%, while retail trade sales fell 0.3% in the advance 
retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.7% rise in        
business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales      
University of Michigan Survey for October (preliminary)                 
 Friday, October 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                Median        Range                 Oct17p  Sep17  Aug17
 Consumer Sent    95.6     94.0 to 96.0                 --   95.1   95.3
     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to
rise modestly to a reading of 95.6 in early-October from 95.1 in        
September, as the impact of the hurricanes appears to be smaller than   
previously expected.                                                    
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:

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