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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 10/16:06 EST Oct 10
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 7 week
Thursday, October 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct07 Sep30 Sep23
Weekly Claims 252k 250k to 275k -- 260k 272k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 8,000 to 252,000 in the October 7 week after a 12,000 decease in the
previous week. The levels of initial and continuing filings remain
elevated, particularly in the hurricane-impacted regions, but should
trend lower as those impacts begin to level the data. The four-week
moving average would fall by 7,250 in the coming week as the 281,000
level in the September 9 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the
MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Producer Price Index for September (percent change)
Thursday, October 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Final Demand +0.4% +0.2% to +0.6% -- +0.2% -0.1%
Ex Food,Energy +0.2% +0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.1% -0.1%
Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.4% in September
after softer-than-expected readings in August. The impact of the
hurricanes should again be seen in energy prices, particularly gasoline
prices, while food prices are expected to rebound after a substantial
1.3% drop in August. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast
to post a 0.2% gain after a below-expectation 0.1% increase in the
previous month.
Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)
Thursday, October 12 at 2:00 p.m. ET (date may change) Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Sep16
Balance -$1.5b -$3.0b to Flat -- -$107.7b +$33.5b
Comments: The Treasury statement for September, and FY 2017, should
show some deterioration from the previous year. For September
specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and outlays for
hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax
receipts. Analysts expect a $1.5 billion deficit for the September tax
month, down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September 2016.
Retail and Food Sales for September (percent change)
Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Retail Sales +1.9% +1.4% to +2.7% -- -0.2% +0.3%
Ex-Mtr Veh +0.9% +0.7% to +1.9% -- +0.2% +0.4%
Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 1.9% in
September, due to both a strong recovery in vehicle sales and
hurricane-related increase in gasoline prices, as AAA reported that
gasoline prices rose solidly in mid-September from one month earlier.
Retail sales are expected to rise 0.9% excluding motor vehicles after
August's modest 0.2% gain, owing mostly to the gasoline jump and to
building materials sales after the storms.
Consumer Price Index for September (percent change)
Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
CPI +0.6% +0.5% to +0.7% -- +0.4% +0.1%
CPI Core +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% -- +0.2% +0.1%
Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.6% in September following a
0.4% energy-related rise in August. Analysts expect energy prices to
move even higher after August's 2.8% surge, as the hurricanes impact,
particularly on gasoline, continued. The core CPI is forecast to rise
0.2% for a second straight month.
Business Inventories for August (percent change)
Friday, October 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug17 Jul17 Jun17
Inventories +0.7% +0.4% to +0.8% -- +0.2% +0.5%
Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.7% in August.
Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.4% in the month, while
wholesale inventories rose 0.9% and the advance report pointed to a 0.7%
gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks
for a 0.7% increase for business inventories, in line with the median
forecast. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.5% and wholesale
sales surged by 1.7%, while retail trade sales fell 0.3% in the advance
retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.7% rise in
business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales
number.
University of Michigan Survey for October (preliminary)
Friday, October 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17p Sep17 Aug17
Consumer Sent 95.5 94.0 to 97.0 -- 95.1 95.3
Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to
rise modestly to a reading of 95.5 in early-October from 95.1 in
September, as the impact of the hurricanes appears to be smaller than
previously expected.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.