US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Jan 9/15:06 EST Jan 9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.       

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 6 week                                

 Thursday, January 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Jan07  Dec30  Dec23

 Weekly Claims     245k     240k to 252k                --   250k   247k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 5,000 to 245,000 in the January 6 New Year's week, reversing the     

previous week's gain that lifted the four-week moving average by 3,500  

to 241,750. The four-week moving average would rise by 5,000 in the     

coming week, a fourth straight gain, as a 225,000 level in the December 

9 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is       

correct and there are no revisions.                                     

Producer Price Index for December (percent change)                      

 Thursday, January 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Final Demand     +0.2%      Flat to +0.3%              --  +0.4%  +0.4%

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%              --  +0.3%  +0.4%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in December    

after 0.4% increases in the previous three months. Energy prices are    

expected to decline after a 4.6% gasoline-led surge in November, while  

food prices are expected to rise further after 0.3% gain. Excluding food

and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after an                

above-expectation 0.3% increase in the previous month that came despite 

a decline in trade services prices. Excluding trade services as well as 

food and energy, PPI is expected to rise modestly.                      

Treasury Statement for December ($ billions)                            

 Thursday, January 11 at 2:00 p.m ET                     Actual:        

             Median           Range              Dec17    Nov17    Dec16

 Balance    -$37.5b      -$54.0b to -$21.0b         -- -$138.5b  -$27.3b

     Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $37.5 billion budget  

gap in December, up from the $27.3 billion gap in December 2016.        

Transfer payments from January shifted in December due to January 1     

being a holiday, but as this was the case in both 2016 and 2017, the    

comparison should still be valid.                                       

Retail and Food Sales for December (percent change)                     

 Friday, January 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Retail Sales   +0.4%     +0.2% to +0.7%                --  +0.8%  +0.5%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.3%     +0.1% to +0.6%                --  +1.0%  +0.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in December after 

a sharp 0.8% increase in November. Seasonally adjusted industry motor   

vehicle sales improved overall in December, while AAA reported that     

gasoline prices declined in mid-December from one month earlier. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0.3% excluding motor vehicles after          

November's 1.0% gain, as electronics sales were cut back by seasonal    

adjustment factors.                                                     

Consumer Price Index for December (percent change)                      

 Friday, January 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 CPI           +0.1%      Flat to +0.2%                 --  +0.4%  +0.1%

 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.1% in December following a 

0.4% rise in November. Analysts expect energy prices to slip after      

October's 3.9% rebound due to gasoline prices. AAA reported a pull-back 

in mid-month prices from November to December. Food prices are expected 

to post a modest increase. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2%        

following a softer-than-expected 0.1% increase in October.              

Business Inventories for November (percent change)                      

 Friday, January 12 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Inventories   +0.4%      +0.2% to +0.4%                --  -0.1%   Flat

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.4% in        

November. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.4% in the   

month, while the advance report pointed to a 0.7% gain for wholesale    

inventories and a 0.1% rise for retail inventories. Taken together, an  

MNI calculation looks for a 0.4% increase for business inventories      

before the wholesale release on January 10. As for sales, factory       

shipments were up 1.2% and the advance estimate for retail trade sales  

was a 0.8% gain, so it appears business sales will be strong this month.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com