US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Jan 12/15:06 EST Jan 12

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Empire State Index for January (diffusion index)                        

 Tuesday, January 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Empire Index      18.0      16.0 to 22.0               --   18.0   19.4

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to hold steady after  

at 18.0 after falling to that point in the previous month               

Industrial Production for December (percent change)                     

 Wednesday, January 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Ind Prod      +0.3%    +0.1% to +0.8%                  --  +0.2%  +1.2%

 Cap Util      77.3%    77.2% to 77.6%                  --  77.1%  77.0%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.3% in     

December after a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose 

by 25,000 in December, while auto production jobs rose by 1,000.        

However, the factory workweek was fell to 40.8 hours from 40.9 hours in 

November. The ISM production index rose to 65.8 in the current month    

from 63.9 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to    

remain soft in the month after a 1.9% November decline, though with an  

upside risk since weather was more seasonal. Mining production is       

forecast to rise further after posting a 2.0% surge. Capacity           

utilization is forecast to tick up to 77.3% from 77.1% in November.     

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 13 week                               

 Thursday, January 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Jan14  Jan06  Dec30

 Weekly Claims     251k      245k to 254k                --  261k   250k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 10,000 to 251,000 in the January 13 employment survey week, almost   

reversing the 11,000 gain in the previous week, which marked a third    

straight increase. Claims were at level of 245,000 in December 16       

employment survey week. The four-week moving average would rise by 1,500

in the coming week, as the 245,000 level in the December 16 week drops  

out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there  

are no revisions.                                                       

Housing Starts for December (annual rate, million)                      

 Thursday, January 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Starts    1.275m       1.230m to 1.318m                -- 1.297m 1.256m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to slow to a 1.275 million annual rate in December after       

another sharp increase in November. The NAHB index rose sharply in      

December, a positive for the housing starts data to remain on a         

generally upward trend.                                                 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for January (diffusion index)        

 Thursday, January 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

             Median         Range                    Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Phila Fed     24.5     23.0 to 31.8                    --   27.9   24.3

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed reading is forecast to dip to a     

reading of 24.5 after rising to a revised 27.9 in the previous month.   

University of Michigan Survey for January (preliminary)                 

 Friday, January 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median           Range              Jan18p  Dec17  Nov17

 Consumer Sent    97.0       94.0 to 98.0            --   95.9   98.5   

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to partially    

rebound to a reading of 97.0 in early-January from 95.9 in December.    

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com