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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Jan 12/15:06 EST Jan 12
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Empire State Index for January (diffusion index)
Tuesday, January 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18 Dec17 Nov17
Empire Index 18.0 16.0 to 22.0 -- 18.0 19.4
Comments: The Empire State index is expected to hold steady after
at 18.0 after falling to that point in the previous month
Industrial Production for December (percent change)
Wednesday, January 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
Ind Prod +0.3% +0.1% to +0.8% -- +0.2% +1.2%
Cap Util 77.3% 77.2% to 77.6% -- 77.1% 77.0%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.3% in
December after a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose
by 25,000 in December, while auto production jobs rose by 1,000.
However, the factory workweek was fell to 40.8 hours from 40.9 hours in
November. The ISM production index rose to 65.8 in the current month
from 63.9 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to
remain soft in the month after a 1.9% November decline, though with an
upside risk since weather was more seasonal. Mining production is
forecast to rise further after posting a 2.0% surge. Capacity
utilization is forecast to tick up to 77.3% from 77.1% in November.
Weekly Jobless Claims for January 13 week
Thursday, January 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan14 Jan06 Dec30
Weekly Claims 251k 245k to 254k -- 261k 250k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 10,000 to 251,000 in the January 13 employment survey week, almost
reversing the 11,000 gain in the previous week, which marked a third
straight increase. Claims were at level of 245,000 in December 16
employment survey week. The four-week moving average would rise by 1,500
in the coming week, as the 245,000 level in the December 16 week drops
out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there
are no revisions.
Housing Starts for December (annual rate, million)
Thursday, January 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
Starts 1.275m 1.230m to 1.318m -- 1.297m 1.256m
Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is
expected to slow to a 1.275 million annual rate in December after
another sharp increase in November. The NAHB index rose sharply in
December, a positive for the housing starts data to remain on a
generally upward trend.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for January (diffusion index)
Thursday, January 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18 Dec17 Nov17
Phila Fed 24.5 23.0 to 31.8 -- 27.9 24.3
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed reading is forecast to dip to a
reading of 24.5 after rising to a revised 27.9 in the previous month.
University of Michigan Survey for January (preliminary)
Friday, January 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18p Dec17 Nov17
Consumer Sent 97.0 94.0 to 98.0 -- 95.9 98.5
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to partially
rebound to a reading of 97.0 in early-January from 95.9 in December.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.