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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for February
Monday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb18 Jan18 Dec17
ISM NMI 58.8 58.0 to 59.5 -- 59.9 56.0
Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall back
to a reading of 58.8 in February after a rebound to 59.9 in January. The
Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index surged to 31.0, while the flash
Markit Services index rose to 55.9.
Factory Orders for January (percent change)
Tuesday, March 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18 Dec17 Nov17
New Orders -1.0% -1.3% to -0.4% -- +1.7% +1.7%
Ex Transport NA NA to NA -- +0.7% +1.1%
Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 1.0% in January.
Durable goods orders fell by 3.7% in the month on a plunge in aircraft
orders, but nondurables orders are expected to rise further due to
higher energy prices, providing some offset. Factory orders are expected
to be roughly flat excluding the transportation component. Durable
orders excluding transportation fell by 0.3%.
Trade in Goods and Services for January (deficit, billion $)
Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18 Dec17 Nov17
Trade Gap -$55.1b -$55.9b to -$54.0b -- -$53.1b -$50.4b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $55.1
billion in January from a $53.1 billion gap in December. The advance
estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened further to $74.4 billion,
with exports down 2.2% and imports down only 0.5%.
Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)
Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 4Q17r 4Q17p 3Q17
Productivity +0.2% -0.2% to +0.7% -- -0.1% +1.5%
Unit Labor Costs +2.3% +2.0% to +2.5% -- +2.0% -1.2%
Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up to a
0.2% pace of growth, as the output component was virtually unrevised,
but the gain in hours worked should be revised lower. Unit labor costs
are expected to be revised up to a 2.3% pace of growth.
Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)
Wednesday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18 Dec17 Nov17
Cons Cred +$16.9b +$10.0b to +$19.0b -- +$18.4b +$31.0b
Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $16.9 billion in
December after an $18.4 billion increase in November. Retail sales fell
by 0.3% and were flat excluding motor vehicles, even weaker than the
soft revised December figures.
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 3 week
Thursday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar03 Feb24 Feb17
Weekly Claims 218k 215k to 220k -- 210k 220k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 8,000 to 218,000 in the March 3 week after a decline of 10,000 in the
previous week to a 49-year low. The four-week moving average would fall
by 1,250 in the coming week, as the 223,000 level in the February 3 week
drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and
there are no revisions.
Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)
Friday, March 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb18 Jan18 Dec17
Payrolls +210k +190k to +250k -- +200k +160k
Private Job +195k +185k to +216k -- +196k +156k
Jobless Rate 4.1% 4.0% to 4.1% -- 4.1% 4.1%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% +0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.3% +0.4%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.4 34.4 to 34.5 -- 34.3 34.5
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 210,000 in
February after a stronger-than-expected 200,000 reading in January. The
unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% for another month.
Hourly earnings are forecast to rise only 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in
January that reflected difficulties with low wage hourly workers getting to work
due to weather, while the average workweek is expected to rebound to 34.4 hours
after dipping to 34.3 in January for the same
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.