US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 27/17:06 EST Jun 27

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 23 week                                  

 Thursday, June 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

                 Median       Range                  Jun23  Jun16  Jun09

 Weekly Claims    220k     215k to 222k                 --   218k   221k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 2,000 to 220,000 in the June 23 week after falling by 3,000 to       

218,000 in the previous week, keeping the level in its tight range. The 

four-week moving average would fall by only 750 in the coming week as   

the 223,000 level in the May 26 week drops out of the calculation,      

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        

GDP for First Quarter (third estimate)                                  

 Thursday, June 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  1Q18t  1Q18s   4Q17

 GDP           +2.2%      +1.9% to +2.3%                --  +2.2%  +2.9%

 Chain Prices  +1.9%      +1.9% to +1.9%                --  +1.9%  +2.3%

     Comments: First quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at 2.2%,   

while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at 1.9%, so     

there should be little attention paid to the data unless there is a     

large revision. Instead, analysts are already focused on the second     

quarter, when growth is expected to rebound, as usual.                  

Personal Income for May (percent change)                                

 Friday, June 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Income        +0.4%       +0.3% to +0.5%               --  +0.3%  +0.2%

 Spending      +0.4%       +0.3% to +0.5%               --  +0.6%  +0.5%

 Core Prices   +0.2%       +0.2% to +0.2%               --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in May, as   

payrolls rose 223,000 and hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while average      

weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to    

rise by 0.4% after a 0.6% April gain. Total retail sales jumped by 0.8% 

in the month and were up 0.9% excluding a 0.5% gain in motor vehicle    

sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food   

services were still up 0.5%, indicating underlying strength. The core   

PCE price index is expected to post another 0.2% increase in May, so the

y/y rate could move up to 1.9%, very close to the 2% target rate.       

MNI Chicago Report for June (index)                                     

 Friday, June 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 MNI Chicago    60.1       59.0 to 62.0                 --   62.7   57.6

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall back to a reading

of 60.1 in June after rising to 62.7 in May. Other regional data already

released were mixed, with the Empire reading up and the Philadelphia    

index down.                                                             

University of Michigan Survey for June (final)                          

 Friday, June 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

                Median        Range                 Jun18f Jun18p  May18

 Consumer Sent   99.3      99.0 to 99.5                 --   99.3   98.0

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised 

from the 99.3 preliminary estimate.                                     

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com