US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Retail and Food Sales for July (percent change)                         

 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Retail Sales   +0.1%    -0.4% to +0.5%                 --  +0.5%  +1.3%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.4%    +0.0% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +1.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.1% in July after a

0.5% gain in June and a 1.3% jump in May. Not seasonally adjusted       

industry motor vehicle sales slowed a bit in July, while AAA reported   

that gasoline prices halted their sharp gains, falling in mid-July from 

one month earlier, the latter reflected in a decline in CPI gasoline    

prices. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles 

after a 0.4% rise in June, while analysts see the core measures breaking

out of the recent trend of solid gains. If the data are in line with    

expectations, it suggests continued sales growth, but at a much slower  

pace than in the second quarter.                                        

Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)

 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                   Median           Range           2Q18p    1Q18   4Q17

 Productivity       +2.4%      +1.7% to +2.5%          --   +0.4%  +0.3%

 Unit Labor Costs   -0.4%      -0.6% to +2.2%          --   +2.9%  +2.5%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.4% in the     

second quarter after modest gains in the previous two quarter, lifted by

the much stronger output data in the GDP report. Unit labor cost growth 

is expected fall by 0.4% from 2.9% in the first quarter.                

Empire State Index for August (diffusion index)                         

 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Empire Index      20.0    18.0 to 21.3                 --   22.6   25.0

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall to a reading  

of 20.0 in August after falling to 22.6 in July.                        

Industrial Production for July (percent change)                         

 Wednesday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Ind Prod      +0.4%     +0.2% to +0.7%                 --  +0.6%  -0.5%

 Cap Util      78.2%     78.0% to 78.5%                 --  78.0%  77.7%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in July   

after a rebound in June. Factory payrolls rose by 37,000 in June, while 

auto production jobs rose by 6,000 and the factory workweek was         

unchanged at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index fell to 58.5 in the   

current month from 62.3 in the previous month. Utilities production is  

expected to continue its downward trend in the month , while mining     

production is forecast to post a sixth straight gain. Capacity          

utilization is forecast to rise slightly to 78.2% from 78.0% in June.   

Business Inventories for June (percent change)                          

 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Inventories   +0.1%      +0.1% to +0.2%                --  +0.4%  +0.3%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.1% in June.  

Factory inventories were already reported up 0.1% in the month, while   

wholesale inventories rose 0.1%. The advance report showed a flat       

reading for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks

for a 0.1% increase for business inventories, so the median forecast    

suggests analysts see no revision to retail inventories. As for sales,  

factory shipments were up 1.0%, wholesale sales fell by 0.1% and the    

advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.3% gain, suggesting a   

0.4% gain for business sales, assuming no large revision to the retail  

trade sales increase.                                                   

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 11 week                                

 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Aug11  Aug04  Jul28

 Weekly Claims   214k     213k to 216k                  --   213k   219k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 1,000 to 214,000 in the August 11 week after a decrease of 6,000 to  

213,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by

1,500 in the coming week as the decades-low 208,000 level in the July 14

week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 

and there are no revisions. Still, the average would be extremely low.  

Housing Starts for July (annual rate, million)                          

 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Starts    1.270m      1.200m to 1.300m                 -- 1.173m 1.337m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to rebound to a 1.270 million annual rate in July after falling

sharply in June. The NAHB index held steady at 68 in July. As           

inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to  

boost output. The pace of building permits is expected to tick up to a  

1.313 million rate from the revised 1.292 million rate in June.         

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)         

 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Phila Fed         22.0    20.7 to 23.8                 --   25.7   19.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a      

reading of 22.0 in August after rebounding to 25.7 in July.             

Leading Indicators for July (percent change)                            

 Friday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Leading Index    +0.4%    +0.4% to +0.5%               --  +0.5%   Unch

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.4% in July. Positive contributions are expected from a dip in initial 

claims and higher stock prices, offset by a drop in consumer            

expectations and lower ISM new orders.                                  

University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)                  

 Friday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      

                Median        Range                 Aug18p  Jul18  Jun18

 Consumer Sent    98.4    97.0 to 99.0                  --   97.9   98.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rebound to   

98.4 in early-August after dipping to 97.8 in July. The data suggest    

little concern at this point about the impacts of a trade war.          

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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