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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Producer Price Index for September (percent change)
 Wednesday, October 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Final Demand     +0.2%    +0.0% to +0.3%               --  -0.1%   Flat 
 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%               --  -0.1%  +0.1%
     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in September 
after a 0.1% August decline. Energy prices are expected to slide 
modestly following a 0.4% August increase, while food prices are 
expected to rise slightly after a 0.6% decline. Excluding food and 
energy prices, PPI is forecast to also rise 0.2% after a 0.1% July drop. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 6 week                                
 Thursday, October 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Oct06  Sep29  Sep22
 Weekly Claims   206k     200k to 206k                  --   207k   215k
     Comment: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 
1,000 to a 206,000 level in the October 6 week after a decrease of 8,000 
to 207,000 in the previous week as the impact of Hurricane Florence in 
the affected areas were largely offset by continued improvement in other 
parts of the country. The four-week moving average would rise by only 
500 in the coming week as the 204,000 level in the September 8 week 
rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and 
there are no revisions. 
Consumer Price Index for September (percent change)                       
 Thursday, October 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 CPI           +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.2%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2% 
 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2%
     Comments:  The CPI is expected to post another 0.2% gain, same as 
in August. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices from August, 
which could reduce seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a sharp 
gain in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% 
following an softer-than-expected 0.1% increase in August. 
Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)                           
 Thursday, October 11 at 2:00 p.m ET (subject to change) Actual:        
             Median           Range              Sep18    Aug18    Sep17
 Balance    +$62.0b    +$62.0b to +$62.0b           -- -$214.2b   +$7.9b
     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $62.0 billion 
surplus in September, finishing off a fiscal year deficit that is 
substantially larger than the $665.8 billion gap in the previous fiscal 
year. Some September transfer payments were shifted in August, allowing 
the September 2018 surplus to be larger than the $7.9 billion surplus in 
September 2017. 
University of Michigan Survey for October (preliminary)          
 Friday, October 12 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                Median        Range                 Oct18p  Sep18  Aug18
 Consumer Sent   100.6    98.0 to 101.8                 --  100.1   96.2
     Comments: The University of Michigan's sentiment index is expected 
to increase slightly in early-October from the 100.1 reading seen in 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email:

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