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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                       
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Payrolls       +163k    +100k to +212k                 --  +224k   +72k
 Private Jobs   +153k    +100k to +190k                 --  +191k   +83k
 Jobless Rate    3.7%     3.6% to 3.7%                  --   3.7%   3.6%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.2%  +0.3%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4     34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 163,000 in July 
after a stronger-than-expected 224,000 rise in June. The unemployment   
rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%, while hourly earnings are      
forecast to rise by 0.2%, and the average workweek is expected to stay  
at 34.4 hours for another month.                                        
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               
 Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                Jun19   May19   Apr19
 Trade Gap    -$54.6b  -$57.0b to -$53.6b             -- -$55.5b -$51.2b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to a   
$54.6b billion gap from $55.5 billion in May. The advance Census trade  
gap narrowed only slightly in the month.                                
University of Michigan Survey for July (final)                          
 Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:      
                Median        Range                  Jul19f Jul19p Jun19
 Consumer Sent    98.5    98.3 to 100.0                  --   98.4  98.2
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised 
at a reading of 98.5, leaving it only slightly ahead of the 98.2 reading
in June and well below the 100.0 reading in May despite a strong stock  
Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                
 Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 New Orders     +0.8%    +0.1% to +1.2%                 --  -0.7%  -1.2%
 Ex-Transport      --          --                       --  +0.1%  +0.2%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.8% in June after
transportation-led declines in the previous two months. Durable goods   
orders were already reported up 2.0% on a sharp rebound in aircraft     
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email:

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