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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 1/17:06 EST Aug 1
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)
Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul19 Jun19 May19
Payrolls +163k +100k to +212k -- +224k +72k
Private Jobs +153k +100k to +190k -- +191k +83k
Jobless Rate 3.7% 3.6% to 3.7% -- 3.7% 3.6%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% +0.2% to +0.3% -- +0.2% +0.3%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.4 34.4 to 34.5 -- 34.4 34.4
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 163,000 in July
after a stronger-than-expected 224,000 rise in June. The unemployment
rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%, while hourly earnings are
forecast to rise by 0.2%, and the average workweek is expected to stay
at 34.4 hours for another month.
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)
Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
Trade Gap -$54.6b -$57.0b to -$53.6b -- -$55.5b -$51.2b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to a
$54.6b billion gap from $55.5 billion in May. The advance Census trade
gap narrowed only slightly in the month.
University of Michigan Survey for July (final)
Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul19f Jul19p Jun19
Consumer Sent 98.5 98.3 to 100.0 -- 98.4 98.2
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised
at a reading of 98.5, leaving it only slightly ahead of the 98.2 reading
in June and well below the 100.0 reading in May despite a strong stock
market.
Factory Orders for June (percent change)
Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
New Orders +0.8% +0.1% to +1.2% -- -0.7% -1.2%
Ex-Transport -- -- -- +0.1% +0.2%
Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.8% in June after
transportation-led declines in the previous two months. Durable goods
orders were already reported up 2.0% on a sharp rebound in aircraft
orders.
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.