US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for 

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI 

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Markit Mfg Index (index)

 Tuesday, October 1 at 9:45  a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median                             Sep19f  Sep19p  Aug19f   

Index           51.0                                 --    51.0     50.3

     Comments: The Markit Manufacturing Index is poised to remain 

unchanged in the final September estimate from the preliminary 51.0 

estimate. 

Construction Spending (percent change)

Tuesday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Aug19  Jul19  Jun19

Spending        0.5                                   --     0.1    -1.3 

          Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise to 0.5% in 

August from 0.1% in July. This comes amid increased demand for housing, 

particularly affordable homes. 

     Vehicle Sales SAAR (millions)

Tuesday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Sep19  Aug19  Jul19  

Sales           17.0                                   --   16.9    17.2

          Comments: The SAAR Vehicle Sales count is expected to move to 17.0 

million from 16.9 million in August, despite trade and manufacturing 

tensions.  

     ISM Manufacturing Index (index)

Tuesday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Sep19  Aug19  Jul19  

Index           50.0                                   --   49.1    51.2

          Comments: The ISM Manufacturing index is expected to move to 50.0 

from 49.1 in August, despite fears of a global manufacturing slowdown. 

ISM Prices Paid Index (index)

Tuesday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Sep19  Aug19  Jul19  

Index           50.5                                   --   46.0    53.7 

          Comments: The ISM Prices Paid index is slated to rise to 50.5 in 

September from 46 in August.  

     ADP Private Payrolls (thousands)

Wednesday, October 2 at 8:15 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Sep19  Aug19  Jul19  

Payrolls        140                                   --     195    142

          Comments: The ADP Private Payroll is projected to fall to 140 from 

a previously reported 195. 

Jobless Claims (thousands)

Thursday, October 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                 Sep21  Sep14  Sep7  

Claims          215                                    --     213    206 

          Comments: Weekly jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 

215,000 from last week's 213,000. This is within the normal range for 

jobless claims. 

Factory Orders (percent)

Thursday, October 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:    

                     Median                           Aug19 Jul19  Jun19  

Order %              -0.2                              --    1.4    0.6

          Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.2% in August, a 

sharp drop from the 1.4% recorded in July.  

Markit Services Index

Thursday, October 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:             

               Median                             Sep19f  Sep19p  Aug19f   

Index           50.9                                 --    50.9    50.7

     Comments: The Markit Services Index is expected to remain unchanged 

in the final estimate from September's earlier estimate of 50.9.

ISM Non Manufacturing Index

Thursday, October 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Sep19  Aug19  Jul19  

Index           55.1                                   --   56.4    53.7

          Comments: The ISM Non Manufacturing Index is slated to move to 55.1 

from 56.4 seen in August. 

Trade Balance (billions)

Friday, October 4 at  a.m. ET                             Actual:        

               Median                                Aug19  Jul19  Jun19  

Billions        -54.5                                 --   -54.0   -55.2        

          Comments:  The trade balance is projected to increase marginally to 

-54.6 in August from -54.0 July. This reflects continued trade tensions 

and strained negotiations.  

Nonfarm Payrolls (thousands)

Friday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Sep19  Aug19  Jul19  

Payrolls        148                                   --     130    164

Private         130                                   --     96     148

     Comments: September nonfarm payrolls are projected to rise to 

148,000 from August's 130,000 number. Private payrolls are also 

projected to rise to 130,000 from 96,000. This further indicates a 

strong labor market and low unemployment.

     Unemployment Rate (percentage)

Friday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median                                Sep19  Aug19  Jul19  

Payrolls        3.7%                                   --    3.7%   3.7%

     Comments: September unemployment rate is looking to remain constant 

at 3.7% as seen in August and July. 

Hourly Earnings (percent/hours)

Friday, October 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                  Median                             Sep19  Aug19  Jul19 

Avg hourly earn    0.3%                               --   0.4%     0.3%

Avg workweek       34.4hr                             --   34.4hr 34.3hr

     Comments: Average hourly earnings for September are projected to 

rise 0.3%, just alightly slower than the 0.4% recorded in August. The 

average workweek length is looking to stay at the usual average of 34.4.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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