US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 25/17:06 EST Aug 25

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                 

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for August (index)

 Tuesday, August 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median            Range                Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Confidence    121.7        118.0 to 125.0              --  121.1  117.3

          Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rise to a 

reading of 121.7 in August after a further increase in July, as low gas 

prices and solid employment gains are offset by uncertainty about fiscal 

policy. The Michigan Sentiment Index jumped to 97.6 in early-August from 

93.4 in the previous month. 

GDP for Second Quarter (second estimate)

 Wednesday, August 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median        Range                   2Q17s  2Q17a   1Q17

 GDP            +2.7%    +2.5% to +3.0%                 --  +2.6%  +1.2% 

 Chain Prices   +1.0%    +1.0% to +1.0%                 --  +1.0%  +2.0%

          Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised up to a 2.7% 

rate from the 2.6% gain in the advance estimate. Analysts expect PCE and 

inventories growth to be revised up, offset by a downward adjustment to 

the government component. The chain price index is expected to be 

unrevised at a 1.0% rate of growth. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 26 week                                   

 Thursday, August 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Aug26  Aug19  Aug12

 Weekly Claims    236k       235k to 238k               --   234k   232k

          Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

and additional 2,000 to 236,000 in the August 26 week after a 2,000 

increase in the previous week. The four-week moving average, which has 

declined for four straight weeks, would continue that streak, falling by 

1,250 in the coming week as the 241,000 level in the July 29 week drops 

out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there 

are no revisions. 

Personal Income for July (percent change)                          

 Thursday, August 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:     

              Median          Range                  Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Income        +0.3%     +0.3% to +0.5%                 --   Flat  +0.3% 

 Spending      +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

 Core Prices   +0.1%     +0.1% to +0.1%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%

          Comments: Personal income is expected to post a 0.3% increase in 

July, as payrolls rose by 209,000, average weekly hours held steady at 

34.5 hours, and hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. Current dollar PCE is 

forecast to rise by 0.4%, as retail sales jumped 0.6% in the month and 

were still up 0.5% excluding a 1.2% gain in motor vehicle sales. Core 

retail sales (also ex. gas) were up 0.5% in the month, while sales 

excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services rose 0.6%, 

indicating underlying strength. The core PCE price index is expected to 

post a 0.1% increase in July, which should keep the y/y measure well 

below 2%. 

MNI Chicago Report for August (index)                                 

 Thursday, August 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                     Actual:     

              Median        Range                    Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 MNI Chicago    59.8     58.9 to 61.6                   --   58.9   65.7

          Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to a reading of 

59.8 in August after reversing to 58.9 in July. Other regional data 

already released suggest solid expansion, particularly in the Empire 

State region. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for August (mln units, saar)                  

 Friday, September 1                                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Dom Sales      12.8m     12.8m to 12.8m                --  12.9m  12.8m

          Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to slow modestly 

to a 12.8 million SAAR in August after rising in July to 12.9 million. 

Seasonal adjustment factors will be a larger subtraction from unadjusted 

sales in August than they were in July. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for August (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, September 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Payrolls       +180k     +160k to +200k                --  +209k  +231k 

 Private Job    +179k     +160k to +190k                --  +205k  +194k

 Jobless Rate    4.3%      4.2% to 4.4%                 --   4.3%   4.4%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.3%  +0.2%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5      34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

          Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 180,000 in 

August after stronger-than-expected readings in the previous two months. 

It remains to be seen if the impact from Amazon's attempt to hire 50,000 

new workers will filter through to the payrolls figures this month, but 

it casts some upside risk on the data. The unemployment rate is expected 

to hold steady at 4.3%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after 

a 0.3% gain in the previous month. The average workweek is expected to 

stay at 34.5 for another month.

Construction Spending for July (percent change)                        

 Friday, September 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                Median         Range                 Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Construction    +0.4%     -1.5% to +0.5%               --  -1.3%  +0.3%

          Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in July. 

Housing starts fell 4.8% in the month, suggesting private residential 

building could continue its string of declines. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for August                                         

 Friday, September 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median       Range                     Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Mfg ISM        56.6     56.0 to 57.5                   --   56.3   57.8

          Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rebound 

modesty to a reading of 56.6 in August after a dip back to 56.3 in July. 

Regional conditions data have suggested fairly strong growth. 

University of Michigan Survey for August (final)          

 Friday, September 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Aug17f Aug17p  Jul17

 Consumer Sent   97.4     97.0 to 97.6                  --   97.6   93.4

          Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised 

down slightly to a reading of 97.4 in August from the 97.6 preliminary 

estimate, still above the 93.4 reading in July. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com