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US DATA: Labor Differential Pointing To Clear Upside Risks To U/E Rate

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The Conference Board consumer survey was markedly weaker than expected in September.
  • Consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (cons 104.0) for a sizeable slip after an upward revised 105.6 (initial 103.3) in Aug. Declines were seen in both the present situation and expectations components.
  • Most notably considering the focus on the labor market, there was another sizeable decline for the labor differential, to 12.6 after another downward revision to 15.9 (initial 16.4).
  • This labor differential doesn’t always guide the monthly change in the unemployment rate but directionally it continues to imply further sizeable increases having briefly held at 4.25/4.22% in Jul/Aug after swift increases earlier in the year.
  • Jobs plentiful 30.9 after 32.7 (initial 32.8) for a fresh low since Mar 2021, Jobs hard to get 18.3 after 16.8 (initial 16.4) for the highest since Feb 2021.
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  • The Conference Board consumer survey was markedly weaker than expected in September.
  • Consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (cons 104.0) for a sizeable slip after an upward revised 105.6 (initial 103.3) in Aug. Declines were seen in both the present situation and expectations components.
  • Most notably considering the focus on the labor market, there was another sizeable decline for the labor differential, to 12.6 after another downward revision to 15.9 (initial 16.4).
  • This labor differential doesn’t always guide the monthly change in the unemployment rate but directionally it continues to imply further sizeable increases having briefly held at 4.25/4.22% in Jul/Aug after swift increases earlier in the year.
  • Jobs plentiful 30.9 after 32.7 (initial 32.8) for a fresh low since Mar 2021, Jobs hard to get 18.3 after 16.8 (initial 16.4) for the highest since Feb 2021.