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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates
Electoral College Projections:
- The Economist continues to project a strong Biden win, with the number of EC votes classes as 'likely Biden' up to 97 from 29 on 30-Sep. Another 29 EC votes sit in the 'lean Biden' category, giving the Dem nominee 308 EC votes even without winning any tossup votes.
Betting Probabilities:
- Following President Donald Trump's positive COVID-19 test and subsequent hospitalization, Betfair has suspended its market on the outcome of the presidential election until Trump's condition is clearer. As such, the implied probabilities in the betting markets will remain static until that point (Biden on 67.9%, Trump on 26.7%).
Swing State Polling:
- Two polls from October 2 give Joe Biden comfortable leads in Pennsylvania, leading 49% to 42% with Siena College/NYT Upshot and 51% to 44% with YouGov/CBS news. Trump has not led in a Pennsylvania poll since mid-July.
Nationwide Polling:
- A NBC News/WSJ poll released on Oct 3 gains significant attention for showing Biden leading Trump by a 14 point margin, 53% to 39%. First poll since September 14 from a major outlet showing Trump below the 40% support level, and in that September poll by HarrisX/The Hill, Biden only garnered 45% support giving him a 6-point lead.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, 538.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progress, MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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