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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates:
Betting Market:
- Implied probability of a Biden win falls from 54.2% at last update on September 8 to 53.3% at the time of writing. In the same period, implied probability of a Trump win has risen from 43.3% to 44.8%.
Electoral College Projections:
- On Predictit 'Safe Biden' down to 196 from 210 at last update, while same section is down to 233 with the Princeton Election Consortium from 262 previously. Both projections favour Biden more heavily than other outlets.
- Decision Desk HQ has all Biden EC votes at 279, only just above the 270-vote victory margin. Down from 308 previously.
Nationwide Polling:
- All polls since last update show Biden leading Trump, with an average of 49.5% to Trump's 41.9%. Widest lead is 12% in Ipsos/Reuters poll from Sep 8, while narrowest is 2% in Rasmussen poll from same day.
Swing State Polling:
- Pennsylvania continues to trend towards Biden with three polls since last update giving Biden leads of 9%, 5% and 3% respectively.
- Georgia remains a toss-up, with two polls since last update giving Biden a 1% lead (47%-46%, Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research) and Trump a 2% lead (48%-46%, Morning Consult).
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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