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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates:
Net Favourability:
- Both candidates' net favourability ratings improving in recent weeks. From an average of -15 in August, Trump's net favourability in Sep stands at an average of -13. For Joe Biden the outlook is even better, improving from a net zero in August favourability polls to +5 in Sep.
Electoral College Projections:
- Cook Political Report moves from 30 EC votes as 'likely Biden' and 90 as 'lean Biden' in July, to 24 as 'likely' and 67 as 'lean' as of September 10. 188 votes remain as 'solid Biden'. 72 votes as toss-ups compared to 43 previously.
- Politico moves from 176 'solid Biden', 14 'likely Biden', 78 'lean Biden' in July to 182, 27, and 69 as of Sep 8 respectively. This boosts Biden from 268 to 278 EC votes overall, enough to win without taking any toss-ups.
Nationwide Polling:
- 10 polls since last update all show Biden leading. Largest leads in that period were 10 points with YouGov/Yahoo (49%/39%) on Sep 11 and USC Dornsife (52%/42%) on Sep 14.
Swing State Polling:
- Three Arizona polls published since last update, all with Biden leading. Wide margins though, from +10% with OH Predictive Insights on Sep 10 down to +2% on Sep 11 with Gravis Marketing.
- First New Hampshire poll since late-August shows Biden leading by 3%, (45%/42%) according to Siena College/NYT Upshot on Sep 11, which puts the lead within the margin of error.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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