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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates:
Betting Market:
- Implied probability of a Biden win falls from 53.3% at last update on August 28 to 49.8% at the time of writing. In the same period, implied probability of a Trump win has risen from 45.2% to 48.8%.
Electoral College Projections:
- Three new forecasters added, all projecting Biden wins. Our Progress gives Biden 290 to Trump's 126 with 122 toss-up EC votes. Plural Vote gives Biden 351 to Trump's 181 with six toss-up votes. Finally, Decision Desk HQ gives Biden 308 votes to 170 for Trump and 60 toss-up votes.
Nationwide Polling:
- Twelve polls since last update all show Biden leading, with an average 49.0% support to Trump's 42.9%. This marks a 1.3% decrease for Biden and a 1.6% increase for Trump since our August 28 update. Narrowest poll in that period shows Biden leading 49-47%.
Swing State Polling:
- North Carolina emerging as one of the closest states. Two polls released there since last update. One from Morning Consult with a 49-47% lead for Biden, the other from East Carolina University with the reverse for Trump. Trump averaged 46.9% in August polls to Biden's 47.4%
- Biden retains lead in two Michigan polls, up by 4% and 10% in PPP (D) and Morning Consult polls respectively. Trump averaged 42.8% support in August polls in Michigan compared to Biden's 49.0%.
Betting Market Implied Probabilities For Presidential Election Winner, %
Source: Betdata.io, MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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