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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Note: This article was amended on September 4 to include the Latest Updates section.
Latest Updates:
Betting Market:
- Implied probability of a Biden win rises from 49.5% at last update on September 2 to 49.9% at the time of writing. In the same period, implied probability of a Trump win has fallen from 49.3% to 48.3%.
Electoral College Projections:
- 270toWin: 17 votes from toss-up - 12 to Lean Biden, 5 to Lean Trump.
- Economist: Lean Biden gains 11 votes, Toss-Up gains 7, Lean Trump loses 18.
- PredicIt: Likely Biden gains 8 votes, Lean Biden gains 14, Tilt Biden loses 22, Likely Trump gains 3, Safe Trump loses 3.
- PEC: Likely Biden gains 10, Leans Biden gains 43, Toss-Up loses 53.
Nationwide Polling:
- Eleven polls added since last update all show Biden leading, with an average 49.9% support to Trump's 41.9%. Narrowest poll in that period shows Biden leading 49-45% from Rasmussen, a pollster that consistently has Trump at a higher level of support than other pollsters.
Swing State Polling:
- Fox News releases a series of polls showing Joe Biden leading in Arizona (+9%), North Carolina (+4%) and Wisconsin (+8%).
- Two Florida polls show a close race, with both Quinnipiac and Trafalgar (R) giving Biden a 3% lead.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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