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US TSYS: Bear Steeper Within Ranges, Israel Response and ADP In Focus

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries sit lower on the day to more than reverse risk-on flows seen after US warnings about Iran preparing to strike Israel which subsequently materialized. Treasuries outperform European FI with markets still waiting to see Israel’s response and supply also weighing for the latter.
  • Cash yields are 1.4bp (2s) to 3.6bps (20s) higher on the day.
  • 2s10s at 14.5bp has lifted 1.6bps but remains within recent ranges and below latest ytd highs of 24.1bp.
  • TYZ4 hovers close to session lows of 114-17+ (-04+) on close to average cumulative volumes of 313k having remained within Tuesday’s range throughout.
  • Yesterday’s broader gains helped it move further away from support at 114-07+ (Sep 26 low) whilst the high of 115-00+ came close to testing 115-02+ (Sep 19 high) after which lies the bull trigger at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage applications Sep 27 (0700ET), ADP employment Sep (0815ET)
  • Fedspeak: Hammack (0900ET), Musalem (1005ET), Bowman (1100ET), Barkin (1215ET) – see STIR bullet
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries sit lower on the day to more than reverse risk-on flows seen after US warnings about Iran preparing to strike Israel which subsequently materialized. Treasuries outperform European FI with markets still waiting to see Israel’s response and supply also weighing for the latter.
  • Cash yields are 1.4bp (2s) to 3.6bps (20s) higher on the day.
  • 2s10s at 14.5bp has lifted 1.6bps but remains within recent ranges and below latest ytd highs of 24.1bp.
  • TYZ4 hovers close to session lows of 114-17+ (-04+) on close to average cumulative volumes of 313k having remained within Tuesday’s range throughout.
  • Yesterday’s broader gains helped it move further away from support at 114-07+ (Sep 26 low) whilst the high of 115-00+ came close to testing 115-02+ (Sep 19 high) after which lies the bull trigger at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage applications Sep 27 (0700ET), ADP employment Sep (0815ET)
  • Fedspeak: Hammack (0900ET), Musalem (1005ET), Bowman (1100ET), Barkin (1215ET) – see STIR bullet
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction (1130ET)