US TSYS: Steady On From Fed, No Time For Debt Concern

     US TSY SUMMARY: Mildly choppy late trade despite mildly anti-climactic FOMC

annc, yld curves near highs with 30Y bond weaker but off post FOMC lows. Fed

kept fed funds target rate unchanged at the zero lower bound at 0.00% to 0.25,

with no dissents (10-0), IOER unchanged and ongoing commitment to limitless QE.

- Notable headline from Fed chair's presser: "THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO BE

CONCERNED ON FEDERAL DEBT".

- In early trade, fast and real$ sold across curve as Tsys pared gains ahead of

GDP. Earlier two-way flow w/better buying in intermediates to long end, Asia

real$ and bank portfolio selling in cash 7s, swap-tied selling in 5s and 10s.

- Equities climbed higher w/desks citing headlines: "GILEAD SAYS AWARE OF

POSITIVE DATA FROM NAID REMDESIVIR STUDY" Bbg and "GILEAD TRIAL HAS MET PRIMARY

ENDPOINT" Bbg.

- swap spds mixed after the bell, spd curve steeper with decent amount of

swappable supply generating two-way hedging in shorts to intermediates. 

- The 2-Yr yield is down 1.2bps at 0.1994%, 5-Yr is down 2.4bps at 0.3513%,

10-Yr is down 0bps at 0.6127%, and 30-Yr is up 2.5bps at 1.2295%.

TECHNICALS:

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M0) Rebounds Off Recent Lows    

*RES 4: 141-26   0.764 projection of Feb 2 - Mar 9 rally from Mar 19 low 

*RES 3: 140-24   High Mar 9 and key contract high

*RES 2: 140-00   Round number resistance

*RES 1: 139-22   High Apr 22

*PRICE: 139-00+ @ 20:21 BST, Apr 29

*SUP 1: 138-17   Low Apr 17 and Low Apr 28 

*SUP 2: 137-16   Low Apr 7 and key near-term support 

*SUP 3: 136-29+ Low Mar 24

*SUP 4: 136-22+  50-day EMA

10yr futures have bounced off recent lows. This is encouraging for bulls with

the technical picture still highlighting a bullish backdrop. On Apr 7, prices

found support at 137-16. This was also the area where the 20-day EMA intersected

on Apr 7. The subsequent recovery is a positive development and price continues

to hold above the 20-day EMA. The focus is on 140-00 and the contract high of

140-24 from Mar 9. Key S/T support is 137-16, Apr 7 low.

JGB TECHS: (M0): Firm to Firmer

*RES 3: 156.02 - High Mar 10 and key resistance 

*RES 2: 154.56 - High Mar 13

*RES 1: 153.50 - High Mar 16

*PRICE: 152.87 @ 18:26 BST, Apr 29

*SUP 1: 150.70 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

*SUP 2: 150.61 - Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: 150.00 - Psychological round number 

Strength seen at the tail-end of last week extended into the Monday session,

narrowing the gap with the first upside target at 153.50. Confirmation that the

BoJ will target unlimited bond buying continues to support, making a further

upside break a stronger prospect. Targets remain at 153.50 initially ahead of

154.56. To the downside, targets sit at the 151.52 low, which opens 150.61 next

as well as the psychological 150.00 handle further out.

MONTH-END EXTENSIONS: *** UPDATED Bloomberg-Barclays US month-end index

extension. Note significant changes to forecast summary compared to the avg

increase for prior year and the same time in 2019. TIPS 0.12Y; Govt

inflation-linked, 0.20.

*........................EST.....1Y Avg Incr..Last Year

*US Tsys.................0.13........0.08........0.07

*Agencies................0.03........0.10........0.08

*Credit..................0.20........0.09........0.04

*Govt/Credit.............0.17........0.08........0.05

*MBS.....................0.05........0.06........0.05

*Aggregate...............0.08........0.08........0.06

*Long Govt/Credit........0.06........0.09........0.06

*Interm Credit...........0.20........0.08........0.06

*Interm Govt.............0.10........0.08........0.07

*Interm Govt/Cred........0.15........0.08........0.06

*High Yield..............0.08........0.06........0.06

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Recap balance of wk's Tsy bill/note auctions

DATE     TIME   AMOUNT   SECURITY    (CUSIP)/ANNC

------------------------------------------------

30 Apr  1130ET   $90B    4W Bill      9127962P3

30 Apr  1130ET   $70B    8W Bill      9127962X6

30 Apr  1300ET   $30B   154D Bill     9127964G1

TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Trades mixed after the bell, yld curves near highs with long

end weaker but off post FOMC lows. Update: 

* 3M10Y  +0.353, 49.95 (L: 42.636 / H: 53.018)

* 2Y10Y  +2.371, 42.155 (L: 38.38 / H: 43.226)

* 2Y30Y  +5.091, 103.999 (L: 97.028 / H: 104.484)

* 5Y30Y  +5.378, 88.136 (L: 81.994 / H: 88.338); Current futures levels:

* Jun 2-Yr futures up 0.625/32 at 110-6.5 (L: 110-05.375 / H: 110-06.875)

* Jun 5-Yr futures up 2/32 at 125-14.25 (L: 125-10.75 / H: 125-16.75)

* Jun 10-Yr futures up 0.5/32 at 139-1 (L: 138-26.5 / H: 139-09)

* Jun 30-Yr futures down 12/32 at 181-15 (L: 181-01 / H: 182-20)

* Jun Ultra futures down 1-5/32 at 225-23 (L: 225-04 / H: 228-15)

US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Trades mostly higher after the bell, lead quarterly

EDM0 near highs since 3M LIBOR set' -0.0806 to 0.7601% (-0.1270/wk), Golds

underperforming. Update: 

* Jun 20 +0.025 at 99.665

* Sep 20 +0.020 at 99.715

* Dec 20 +0.020 at 99.690

* Mar 21 +0.020 at 99.750

* Red Pack (Jun 21-Mar 22) +0.025

* Green Pack (Jun 22-Mar 23) +0.020

* Blue Pack (Jun 23-Mar 24) +0.010 to +0.015

* Gold Pack (Jun 24-Mar 25) -0.005 to +0.005

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles

* O/N -0.0052 at 0.0508% (-0.0059/wk)

* 1 Month -0.0340 to 0.4036% (-0.0372/wk)

* 3 Month -0.0806 to 0.7601% (-0.1270/wk)

* 6 Month -0.0312 to 0.8619% (-0.0603/wk)

* 1 Year -0.0154 to 0.9097% (-0.0298/wk)

US SWAPS: Spds running mixed after the bell, spd curve steeper with decent

amount of swappable supply generating two-way hedging in shorts to

intermediates. Latest levels:

Time(ET)   2Y Swap/Mid   5Y Swap/Mid    10Y Swap/Mid   30Y Swap/Mid

Wed 1500  -2.06/+12.19   -0.38/+5.25    +0.12/+1.00    +0.31/-43.31

1230      -1.25/+13.00   -0.62/+5.00    +0.12/+1.00    +0.56/-43.06

1000      -1.19/+13.06   -0.25/+5.38    +0.19/+1.06    +0.88/-42.75

Wed Open  -1.00/+13.25   -0.25/+5.38    +0.38/+1.25    +0.88/-42.75

Tue 1500  -0.25/+15.50   -0.50/+5.75    -0.50/+1.00    -0.12/-43.50

STIR: Federal Reserve Bank of New York EFFR for prior session:

* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.04%, volume: $97B

* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 0.04%, volume: $229B

US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, volume levels reflect prior session):

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 0.01%, $1.165T

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 0.01%, $500B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 0.01%, $476B

FED: Recap NY Fed operational purchases for Wednesday

Tsy 4.5Y-7Y, $7.000B accepted, $18.012B submitted

(Reminder, NY Fed lowered the daily avg Tsy sec buys to $10B from $15B late lst

Friday. Today is the first time there has been a lone buy operation since the NY

Fed started back in mid-March). Schedule for balance of the week:

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Thursday ($14B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 20Y-30Y, appr $3B

* 1100-1120ET: Tsy 2.25Y-4.5Y, appr $11B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Friday ($10.5B)

* 1100-1120ET: TIPS 7.5Y-30Y, appr $2.5B

* 1200-1220ET: Tsy 0-2.5Y, appr $8B

OUTLOOK: *** US Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

30-Apr 0830 25-Apr jobless claims (4.427m, 3.500m)

30-Apr 0830 Mar personal income (0.6%, -1.5%)

30-Apr 0830 Mar current dollar PCE (0.2%, -0.1%)

30-Apr 0830 Mar total PCE price index (0.1%, -1.8%)

30-Apr 0830 Mar core PCE price index (0.2%, -0.1%)

30-Apr 0830 Q1 ECI (0.7%, 0.6%)

30-Apr 0945 Apr MNI Chicago PMI (47.8, 37.7)

30-Apr 1030 24-Apr natural gas stocks w/w

30-Apr 1130 $90B 4W Bill auction (9127962P3)

30-Apr 1130 $70B 8W Bill auction (9127962X6)

30-Apr 1300 $30B 154D Bill auction (9127964G1)

30-Apr 1630 29-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings

30-Apr ---- Fed exits media blackout

PIPELINE: Coca-Cola launched just ahead Fed chairman's conf call got underway

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld; Priced *; Launch #

04/29 $6.5B #Coca-Cola $1.5B 7Y +95, $1.5B 10Y +105, $1B 20Y +125, $1.5B 30Y

+135, $1B 40Y +150

04/29 $2.25B #Philip Morris $750M each 3Y +100, 5Y +125 and 10Y +155

04/29 $2B *NXP $500M 5Y +235, $500M 7Y +265, $1B 10Y +280

04/29 $2B #PepsiCo $1B 3Y +57, $1B 10Y +105

04/29 $600M *Canadian National 30Y +135

04/29 $525M *Consumer Energy 40Y +130

04/29 $300M *ONE Gas 10Y +145

04/29 $750M *CABEI 5Y +160

Eurodollar/Tsy options

Eurodollar options

* 11,000 Mar 98 calls vs Mar 9/97 put spds

* over -10,000 Green Jun 93/95/96/97 call condors 4.0 over Green Jul 96/97/98

call flys

* Update, over -110,000 Sep 93/95/96 put flys from 1.0-1.25 (after >60,000 Mar

93/95/96 put flys traded earlier

* Update, over 12,700 Sep 100 calls, 1.25

* near 50,000 Mar 93/95/96 put flys, 1.0 adds to recent 10k Block

Block 0958:44ET, 10,000 Mar 93/95/96 put flys, 1.0 net

* +11,000 Sep 97/98/100.12 call flys, 1.5

* +22,000 May 97 calls vs. Jun 93 puts, even net

* +7,600 Sep 98/100.12 call spds, 1.25

* +5,000 Mar 93/95/96 put flys, 1.0

Block 0845:00ET, 10,000 May 95/96 1x2 call spds, 3.5 vs. 99.675/0.60%

Block 0842:32ET, 10,000 short Jul 97/98 call spds 3.5 vs. 99.75/0.29%

Block 0836:49ET, 10,000 short May 97 calls, 3.0

Salient overnight trades,

* 43,000 Sep 91 puts, 0.5

* +26,000 Jun 95/96 put spds 2.5, adds to +20k yesterday

* over 23,000 May 97 calls, 0.5

* +10,000 Sep 97/98 1x2 call spds, 1.0

* -7,000 Mar 92/95/97 put flys, 7.0

* +5,000 Jun 93/95/96 put flys, 1.5 adds to +25k yesterday

* 5,000 Jun 92 puts, 0.75

* +10,000 Green Jun 96/97 call spds 3.0 over Jun 96 puts

Tsy options

* +1,500 FVM 124.25/124.75/125.25 put trees, 4/64

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]