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Free AccessUS TSYS: TSY CURVES FLATTER PARING THIS WEEKS LARGE STEEPENING
US TSY SUMMARY: Tsy trading mildly higher into the bell, middle of the range
with strong volume (TYZ 1.45M), Curves flatter today but having pared loses this
afternoon; This afternoons 9Y-10M TIPS auction high yld at .910% vs a WI bid at
.902% prior, the highest 10Y TIP award this year was .934% in May; Data out
today included US Leading Index which came in just off expectations while
Existing Home Sales came in weaker than expected; Philly Fed came in much
stronger than expected at +22.9 vs +18.0 expected, Initial Jobless Claims came
in lower than expected at 201k vs 210k expected, US Tsy fell slightly on the
release.
-US$ fell today DXY -.639, 93.898 (93.829L/94.563H), $/Eur higher +0.0107 at
1.1780, $/Yen up +.17 112.45; equities saw large gains making new session highs
after the bell (emini +23.50, 2938.50 vs. 2940.75H); Gold up slightly (XAU
+3.50, 1207.54); West Texas crude down(WTI -0.32, 70.80).
-Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-21 (2.803%), 5Y 99-01.5 (2.957%), 10Y 98-10.5 (3.070%),
30Y 96-01 (3.206%).
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Trading higher in the middle of the range, strong volume
(TYU 1.44M), curves flatter but have pared loses; update:
* 2s10s -0.339, 26.432 (24.945L/27.542H);
* 2s30s -1.271, 40.218 (38.711L/42.474H);
* 5s30s -1.212, 24.958 (24.469L/26.838H);
Current futures levels:
* Dec Ultra bonds up 22/32 at 153-30 (153-03L/154-11H)
* Dec 30-yr Bond futures up 13/32 at 140-10 (139-24L/140-19H)
* Dec 10-yr futures up 1.5/32 at 118-19.5 (118-14L/118-23.5H)
* Dec 5-yr futures up 0.25/32 at 112-12 (112-9.25L/112-14.75H)
* Dec 2-yr futures up 0.25/32 at 105-10.75 (105-9.5L/105-11.75H)
US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Trading lower with a parallel shift across the
strip, near the bottom of a tight range, strong volume continues throughout the
week. Current White pack (Sep'18-Jun'19):
* Dec'18 -0.020 at 97.330
* Mar'19 -0.020 at 97.150
* Jun'19 -0.015 at 96.990
* Sep'19 -0.010 at 96.900
* Red pack (Sep'19-Jun'20) -0.015-0.005
* Green pack (Sep'20-Jun'21) -0.015-0.010
* Blue pack (Sep'21-Jun'21) -0.010
* Gold pack (Sep'22-Jun'22) -0.005-EVEN
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles,
* O/N -0.0012 to 1.9174% (+0.0023 wk)
* 1 Month +0.0298 to 2.2122% (+0.0475 wk)
* 3 Month +0.0130 to 2.3664% (+0.0293 wk)
* 6 Month +0.0131 to 2.5849% (+0.0161 wk)
* 1 Year +0.0095 to 2.8966% (+0.0164 wk)
US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 1.92% vs. 1.94% prior, $794B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 1.90% vs. 1.91% prior, $430B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 1.90% vs. 1.91% prior, $415B
US SWAPS: Latest spd levels:
* 2Y +0.88/18.13
* 5Y +0.88/12.38
* 10Y +0.80/6.49
* 30Y +1.48/-6.03
OUTLOOK: Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
- Sep 21 Sep Markit Services Index (flash) (54.8, --) 0945ET
- Sep 21 Sep Markit Mfg Index (flash) (54.7, --) 0945ET
- Sep 21 Aug BLS state payrolls 1000ET
- Sep 21 Q3 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (-- , --) 1100ET
- Sep 21 Q3 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (--, --) 1115ET
Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary
Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:
* 10,000 Dec 77 puts at 42.5, note 2k in pit BLOCK
* 20,000 Dec 75/76 1x2 call sprd at CAB vs 9732/0.10%
* +10,000 Short Nov 66 puts at 1.5
UPDATE: Total +40,000 Short Dec 66 puts at 0.5 over Dec 72 puts
* +20,000 Short Mar 63/67 put sprd with Short Mar 65/67 put sprd for net 19.5
* 10,000 Green Nov 70/72 call sprd with Green Nov 71/73 call sprd for net 4.5 vs
9681.5/0.28%
* 5,000 Front Nov/Front Dec 72 3x2 put sprd at 1.25
* -10,000 Nov 72 puts at 1
* 5,000 Dec 72/73/75 call fly at 4.5
* -4,000 Short Mar 67 Straddle at 32 vs 9680/0.12%
* -5,000 Oct 73 calls at 0.75
* 5,000 Dec 72 puts at 2
* -17,000 Short Dec 67 puts at 5.5 vs 9683.5/0.36%, BLOCK
* -7,500 Dec 73/75 put sprd at 9.5 vs 9685/0.25%, BLOCK
US TSY OPTIONS
US TSY OPTIONS: Latest trade,
* -10,000 TYX 117.5 at 10
* 10,000 USX 136 puts at 14
* -5,000 TYV 118.25/118.75 put sprd at 15
* 14,000 USX 136 puts at 14
* +2,500 USV 140.5 calls at 6
* +4,000 TY Week 1 119/120 call sprd at 9
--MNI Chicago Bureau; +1 630-698-0154; email: ryan.martin@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.