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US TSYS: TYZ4 Close To Support Ahead Of CPI and Jobless Claims

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries broadly consolidate yesterday’s sell-off, if anything extending it slightly in European hours with oil futures gaining ahead of important releases with US CPI and jobless claims.
  • The data are followed by a range of Fedspeak including permanent/current year voters before 30Y supply offers a test of demand at the long end. Yesterday’s 10Y tailed by 0.5bp whilst last month’s 30Y tailed by 1.5bps despite improved internals.
  • Cash yields sit 0.5-1bp higher, with 2s10s little changed at 5.5bps for within recent ranges.
  • 2Y yields of 4.0285% saw their highest since Aug 20.
  • TYZ4 trades at 112-03+ (- 03) on subdued volumes of 270k pre-data. It has held narrow ranges but has still dropped to new recent lows of 112-01+, stopping just above round number support at 112-00 after which lies 111-14 (50% retrace of Apr-Sep bull cycle, cont.).
  • Data: CPI Sep (0830ET), Real av earnings Sep (0830ET), Jobless claims (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Cook (0915ET, text + Q&A), Goolsbee CNBC (1000ET), Barkin fireside chat on economic outlook (1030ET), Williams keynote address (1100ET, text + Q&A).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open - 912810UC0 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries broadly consolidate yesterday’s sell-off, if anything extending it slightly in European hours with oil futures gaining ahead of important releases with US CPI and jobless claims.
  • The data are followed by a range of Fedspeak including permanent/current year voters before 30Y supply offers a test of demand at the long end. Yesterday’s 10Y tailed by 0.5bp whilst last month’s 30Y tailed by 1.5bps despite improved internals.
  • Cash yields sit 0.5-1bp higher, with 2s10s little changed at 5.5bps for within recent ranges.
  • 2Y yields of 4.0285% saw their highest since Aug 20.
  • TYZ4 trades at 112-03+ (- 03) on subdued volumes of 270k pre-data. It has held narrow ranges but has still dropped to new recent lows of 112-01+, stopping just above round number support at 112-00 after which lies 111-14 (50% retrace of Apr-Sep bull cycle, cont.).
  • Data: CPI Sep (0830ET), Real av earnings Sep (0830ET), Jobless claims (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Cook (0915ET, text + Q&A), Goolsbee CNBC (1000ET), Barkin fireside chat on economic outlook (1030ET), Williams keynote address (1100ET, text + Q&A).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open - 912810UC0 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)