US Weekly LNG Exports Fall Again and Spreads Still Favour Asia

US LNG exports are still more profitable to Asia over Europe throughout the summer period according to BNEF despite a net gain in European gas prices this week amid escalating Middle East risks, Norwegian supply outages and curtailed US terminal feedgas flows.

• The US netback to Asia is up to 8.53$/mmbtu and to Europe is up to 7.81$/mmbtu.
• The number of US LNG export cargoes fell again last week to 21 from 22 the previous week with a total vessel capacity of 79bcf according to the EIA based on Bloomberg data.
• Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals decreased by 13.4% (1.7bcf/d) from last week, averaging 10.9bcf/d driven by a drop in deliveries to terminals in South Texas and South Louisiana, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas volumes at the Stratton Ridge delivery location for Freeport LNG on the Gulf South pipeline have been close to zero since April 12.
• US terminal feedgas flows fell to a low of 9.1bcf/d in April 16 but have recovered slightly to 11.15bcf/d today according to Bloomberg with estimated supply to Freeport LNG suggesting a recovery up to 0.56bcf/d today.
  • TTF MAY 24 down 2.9% at 31.37€/MWh
  • JKM May 24 down 2.2% at 10.73$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF May 24 down 0.1$/mmbtu at 0.87$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas MAY 24 down 0.9% at 1.74$/mmbtu