USD/Asia Pairs Higher Across The Board, BI Still To Come

USD/Asia pairs are higher across the board. USD/CNH has hit fresh highs amid on-going equity weakness and strong Northbound stock connect outflows. The Korean won didn't see any benefit from a more hawkish BoK. MYR has hit 6 month lows, while USD/IDR is tracking higher ahead of the BI decision later, no change is expected. Tomorrow, Malaysia CPI is out, along with Taiwan's final Q1 GDP read. Singapore IP also prints.

• USD/CNH continues to track higher, we currently sit just below session highs, in the 7.0820/30 region. Onshore USD/CNY spot is through 7.0700. Both pairs are back to highs from early Dec last year. Equity headwinds persist, with China related equities down further today. The CSI300 is off by 0.50% at this stage, threatening fresh YTD lows. Northbound stock connect outflows continue, with a further 5.7bn yuan in outflows so far today. If maintained this would bring net outflows for the past 3 sessions to just over 18bn yuan. This would be the worst 3-day run of outflows since late October last year.
• 1 month USD/KRW is higher, weighed by the weaker CNH trend, and lower onshore equities. The BoK held rates steady but delivered a hawkish update, boosting its core inflation forecast to 3.3% for 2023 (from 3%). This didn't aid the won though, with the Kospi off by 0.40% at this stage. 1 month USD/KRW is back close to 1325, around 0.55% weaker in won terms versus NY closing levels from Thursday.
• TWD has fared better. Spot relatively steady in USD/TWD terms at 30.80. The Taiex has rallied 0.80% on chip maker optimism following Nvidia's positive earnings update.
• USD/MYR prints at 4.6200/6250, the pair is ~0.6% firmer today as broader USD/Asia trends dominate. Ringgit is at its lowest level since 11 November, the MYR has weakened ~3.5% in May. Palm Oil Futures have fallen ~12% from their high in early May, losses have been marginally pared and we sit at 3540/50. Looking ahead on the wire tomorrow we have April CPI, the print is expected at 3.3% Y/Y slowing from 3.4% in March.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed this morning, we remain within recent ranges. We now sit ~0.8% below the upper end of the band. USD/SGD is a touch above the 200-Day EMA ($1.3512) and prints at its highest level since mid March. Broader US trends have seen the pair firm in recent dealing. The final read of Q1 GDP printed a touch firmer than expected. Y/Y growth printed at 0.4% vs 0.2% expected, Q/Q fell 0.4%. The downtrend in GDP growth is still intact though, y/y growth momentum still back to late 2020 lows. On the wires tomorrow we have April Industrial Production, a M/M rise of 0.1% is expected.
• In line with broader USD trends, USD/IDR is pushing higher in the first part of trade today. We last tracked in the 14950/55 region, -0.30% weaker in IDR terms for the session so far. We are right around May 19 highs and early April highs. Note also the simple 50-day MA is not too far away on the topside, close to 15000. Lows from earlier in the week came in close to 14850. The main focus today is the BI decision, with the central bank seen firmly on hold. The outlook, particularly in terms of potential rate cuts, along with financial stability issues (IDR rate etc) are likely to be the main focus points.