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USD/Asia Pairs Maintain Positive Bias

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly higher today, although gains have been more modest compared to yesterday's session. Regional equities are on the backfoot, but USD indices are close to unchanged. USD/CNH tested its 100-day EMA, above 6.9000, but is now back below this level. Still to come today is Taiwan Q4 GDP revisions, while a meeting between the South Korean Finance Ministry and onshore FX dealers will be the other focus point. Tomorrow, the BoK decision is on tap, no change is expected. Singapore CPI is also out.

  • USD/CNH continues to trade with a positive bias. Today we tested the 100-day EMA near 6.9040, but now sit back at the 6.8990/00 level. Onshore equities are weaker, the CSI 300 tracking -0.80% at this stage. The CNY fixing was neutral relative to expectations.
  • Spot USD/KRW is higher, +0.60% to 1303/04, playing catch up to won weakness in the NDF space since yesterday's onshore spot close. We are off earlier session highs as the Finance Ministry is meeting with FX dealers later today to discuss won weakness. The 1 month NDF is slightly below NY closing levels, last around 1302. Onshore equities are weaker, amid tech headwinds and higher core yields. Tomorrow the BoK is expected to stand pat, keeping the policy rate steady at 3.50%.
  • Similarly, USD/TWD spot is back above 30.51, fresh highs in the pair back to mid January. We continue to track equity sentiment fairly closely. SGD has outperformed somewhat, with USD/SGD holding below the 1.3400 level for now. The NEER is higher, per Goldman Sachs estimates. Tomorrow Jan CPI will be in focus.
  • USD/IDR is pushing higher, last close to 15220 level, around +0.20% on closing levels yesterday. This is line with core yields, particularly in the US real yield space, from the Tuesday session. Indonesian equities remain under pressure, off 1.30% today.
  • USD/THB continues to gravitate higher, last just above 34.68. Local politics will be in focus, as the Thai PM stated yesterday he would dissolve the local parliament in March. This should pave the way for elections in May.
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