USD/CNH Continues To Rebound, USD/IDR Above 15000, Won Outperforms

USD/Asia pairs are higher, with the exception of the Korean won, which has seen fresh outperformance. USD/CNH is back to 7.1800, amid disappointment on today's LPR cuts. USD/TWD is threatening to break above its 200-day MA, while in SEA most FX is weaker, except for THB. Still to come is Taiwan export orders, while tomorrow first 20-days trade data for June is due in South Korea.

• USD/CNH sits just below session highs, last near 7.1800 (highs of 7.1853 were printed earlier). CNH has faltered on broader USD strength, coupled with some disappointment around the 10bps cut in the 5-yr LPR rate (with some in the market looking for a 15bps cut). Onshore equities are weaker, albeit modestly.
• The won is outperforming so far today. Spot is back to around the 1281 level, while the 1 month NDF sits sub 1279 in latest dealings. Earlier highs were around the 1282.60 level in the 1 month NDF. There doesn't appear an obvious catalyst for won gains, although it does continue the June trend of won outperformance.
• USD/TWD is sitting at multi-week highs, last at 30.865. This is right on the 200-day MA, which we haven't spent too much time above since mid March. The 1 month NDF has already breached this resistance point and is back at highs to Nov last year (last 30.965). TWD's sensitivity to CNY moves is on display, with renewed weakness in the yuan hurting sentiment, while onshore equities are weak as well. Still, the wedge between local equities and TWD remains large, with the currency not benefiting to any great degree during the tech led bull run from mid May to mid June.
• USD/IDR is higher, last near 15050 in spot terms, around 0.35% weaker versus Monday closing levels. We did see bond outflows at the end of last week, and coupled with broader equity market jitters are likely weighing. We are now through the simple 100-day MA (15017.6), while late March levels may be in focus around 15120 in terms of next upside target. IDR is unwinding some outperformance from this year, but we expect BI to curb weakness. See our full update here.
• USD/INR is ~0.3% firmer as the Rupee softens in early trade. The pair last prints at 82.15/82.20. The broader USD/Asia move has weighed on the Rupee in early dealing; the pair is above the 82 handle for the first time since Thursday.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing, the measure remains well within recent ranges. We now sit ~0.6% below the upper end of the band. USD/SGD has ticked away from session highs in recent dealing, the pair faced resistance at the 20-Day EMA ($1.3429), and now sits little changed from yesterday's closing levels at $1.3410/20. A reminder that the local docket is empty until Friday's CPI print. Headline CPI is expected to fall to 5.4% Y/Y from 5.7%, and Core CPI is also expected to tick lower to 4.7% Y/Y from 5.0%.
• The Ringgit has weakened to its lowest level since November 11 2022, as USD/MYR follows the broader USD/Asia move in early dealing. The pair has marginally ticked away from session highs and we sit ~0.2% firmer today. May Trade Balance printed at MYR15.42, an MYR13.40bn surplus had been expected.