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USD/CNH Prints Another Fresh High, CNY NEER Downtrend Persists

CNH

USD/CNH was mostly on the front foot post the Asia close, pushing above 7.1600 in NY trade. We sit slightly lower now, last close to 7.1560. This left CNH 0.17% weaker for Monday's session. USD/CNY also pushed higher finishing at 7.1464, while the 4:30pm close (which feeds into the CNY fixing outcome) was 7.1426. This coupled with a relatively steady USD index levels is likely to bias fixing estimates higher again.

  • The CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan index) nudged down a further 0.10% to 121.79 another fresh low back to August 2021. The NEER has now fallen in 9 out of the last 10 sessions.
  • Speculation remains around a potential MLF cut this Thursday. Onshore government bond yields were mixed for Monday, with the 10yr now tracking sub 2.70%, while the 2yr has held relatively steady around 2.10%.
  • Onshore equities finished higher yesterday for the CSI 300, +0.20%. The China Golden Dragon index slipped though in US trade on Monday, down -0.09%.
  • The local data calendar is empty until Thursday when May activity figures print, along with the MLF decision. We are still waiting for the May new loans/aggregate credit data.
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