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CNH/JPY Dips Back Below 50-Day MA

CNH

USD/CNH was range bound post the Asia close, meeting resistance above 6.7550, but not able to test back below 6.7400. We currently track at 6.7450. CNH underperformed safe havens, particularly the yen over the past 24 hours, but is broadly moving in line with the likes of EUR. CNH/JPY is back below the 50-day MA (20.00 versus current 19.935) for the first time since early June.

  • The Biden/Xi call appeared to largely focus on the Taiwan issue. Tariffs were reportedly not discussed. Aides from both sides are now reportedly planning an in-person meeting between the two leaders, although no dates were given.
  • The near-term focus now, from a geopolitical standpoint, will be whether US House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan and how China reacts to such a visit. At this stage it remains uncertain if the trip will take place.
  • China's Politburo meeting didn't signal big stimulus, and also didn't make reference to this year's growth target (5.5%). Instead stating "the best outcome" should be achieved from a growth standpoint. We may get more details from the meeting over coming days.
  • China's Golden Dragon index fell by 1.2% overnight, bucking the broader trend of equity strength. Delisting risks are still likely to be impacting sentiment to a degree. Yesterday onshore equities finished modestly higher, although the property sub index could not manage to close higher.
  • FDI figures are likely to print today but the main focus will be on Sunday's official PMI prints. The manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 50.3 from 50.2 previously. Non-manufacturing is expected to ease a touch to 53.8 from 54.7 last month.
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USD/CNH was range bound post the Asia close, meeting resistance above 6.7550, but not able to test back below 6.7400. We currently track at 6.7450. CNH underperformed safe havens, particularly the yen over the past 24 hours, but is broadly moving in line with the likes of EUR. CNH/JPY is back below the 50-day MA (20.00 versus current 19.935) for the first time since early June.

  • The Biden/Xi call appeared to largely focus on the Taiwan issue. Tariffs were reportedly not discussed. Aides from both sides are now reportedly planning an in-person meeting between the two leaders, although no dates were given.
  • The near-term focus now, from a geopolitical standpoint, will be whether US House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan and how China reacts to such a visit. At this stage it remains uncertain if the trip will take place.
  • China's Politburo meeting didn't signal big stimulus, and also didn't make reference to this year's growth target (5.5%). Instead stating "the best outcome" should be achieved from a growth standpoint. We may get more details from the meeting over coming days.
  • China's Golden Dragon index fell by 1.2% overnight, bucking the broader trend of equity strength. Delisting risks are still likely to be impacting sentiment to a degree. Yesterday onshore equities finished modestly higher, although the property sub index could not manage to close higher.
  • FDI figures are likely to print today but the main focus will be on Sunday's official PMI prints. The manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 50.3 from 50.2 previously. Non-manufacturing is expected to ease a touch to 53.8 from 54.7 last month.