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USD/IDR 1 Month Creeps Higher Amid Cross Asset Headwinds

IDR

1 month USD/IDR is drifting higher, last near 15675, around 0.20% above NY closing levels from Monday. Spot USD/IDR is up by a similar amount and last near 15660.

  • For the 1 month NDF we are now back above all key EMAs. The 20-day is nearby at 15655, btu hasn't been an important inflection point. The 100-day near 15575 has seen support emerge on dips close this level back to early Jan this year.
  • Mid Feb highs rest near 15730, while earlier Jan highs were above 15890.
  • Cross asset headwinds have emerged somewhat for the rupiah, with global equity momentum stalling somewhat in recent sessions, while US real yields hold sticky, the 10yr close to +2.00%. 5yr CDS has edged up from recent lows, last close to +70bps.
  • Local equities have traded on the back foot in recent session, with the 5-day average of foreign investor inflows now negative.
  • We have local debt auctions later, which may draw interest. Foreign inflows into local government debt securities have been negative in 2024 to date.
  • The authorities are proposing a wider fiscal deficit next year (2.45-2.8% of GDP) versus this year's 2.29% target (see this BBG link for more details). The local data calendar is quiet until Friday's PMI and CPI print.
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