USD/IDR Edges Back Towards 15400

UDR/IDR sits a touch below recent highs, last near 15395. The pair is slightly firmer for the session so far (+0.10%). Recent highs rest at 15411. A break above this level would target mid March highs at 15479. On the downside, a move back sub 15333 (the 20-day EMA) is potentially needed to shift the trend more positively for IDR.

• Elevated US real yields, with the 10yr sitting at 2.07%, down slightly from cyclical highs, will be weighing, or at least limiting IDR rebounds. Equally, the market will be mindful of BI intervention with the 15400 potentially acting as a near term resistance point.
• Portfolio flows were somewhat more positive last week, +$110.5mn for equities, while bonds were tracking a touch higher. Local equities have outperformed, aided by firmer energy commodity prices.
• The local data calendar is quiet until next week (when the PMI and Sep CPI prints are due Monday). Earlier we did get August money supply, up 5.9% y/y, versus 6.4% y/y in July.