USD/IDR Remains Within Recent Ranges, S&P Expects Bond Stress To Stay Localized

USD/IDR is slightly higher, last sitting close to 15175/80 (+0.15%). This unwinds part of yesterday's fall of -0.30%. The pair remains very much within recent ranges though and wedged between key EMAs. Resistance appears above 15200, while the 20 and 200 day EMAs continue to drift higher (sitting 15144 for 20 day, 15132 for the 200 day).

• The local data calendar is now empty until March post yesterday's close to expectations Q4 current account data ($4.3bn, forecast $4.2bn).
• This is likely to leave IDR at the whim of offshore risk appetite shifts. Offshore investors have been sellers of local government bonds up to the end of last week (-$332mn for last week, bringing month to date outflows to -$380.1mn). Equity flows have been more positive though, +$235.1mn month to date, while the JCI has tracked recent ranges.
• S&P noted that the distress in Indonesia's bond market is likely to be more a domestic issue, rather than offshore issue (see this link for more details), as most maturities are in IDR, rather than dollars. This follows onshore developer Waskita deferring bond payments.