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USD/INR Back Sub 100-Day EMA

INR

The rupee remains on the front foot. USD/INR is down a further 0.20% in early dealings. This is up from session lows near 81.70, but still leaves us below the 100-day EMA, see the chart below. As the chart highlights, the Jan break of the 100-day EMA didn't prove sustainable.

  • The same scenario could unfold this time around, although the near term equity flow backdrop is positive, with chunky inflows coming late last week (+1.5bn on Thursday) on the back of the CQG investment into the Adani Group. Onshore equities are up +1% in the first part of trade of today.
  • Data is holding up ok, with the services PMI late last week back close to the 60.0 level. As we also highlighted last week, the rupee tends to perform better in March from a seasonal stand point (see this link).
  • An edge down in US cash Tsy yields will also be helping at the margins.
  • This may leave the market somewhat more cautious on calling a bottom in USD/INR in the near term at least. Note data calendar doesn't swing back into gear until later in the week when IP figures print.

Fig 1: USD/INR Back Sub The 100-day EMA


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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