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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
INR
USD/INR has opened ~0.1% softer as the pair retreats from fresh monthly highs seen in yesterday's trading. ADXY has faced resistance at its 200-Day EMA and is paring yesterday's losses in early trade.
- INR was pressured yesterday on broad based greenback strength and USD/INR printed a high of 82.911, the highest level since early January.
- On-shore equities are following regional equities higher, the Hang Seng has firmed off its lowest level since 4 Jan spilling over into a wider risk appetite.
- Global Investors bought ~$199mn in Indian equities on 14 Feb, the 4th straight day of equity inflows.
- India's Jan Trade Balance was narrower than expectations however a $17.74bn deficit was still observed. The trade deficit continues to narrow from July 2022 extremes, which is in line with the Citi ToT proxy, see the chart below.
- The ToT proxy suggests further improvement in the trade deficit going forward, although RBI may use any improved BoP backdrop to replenish FX reserves. The INR NEER (J.P. Morgan index) is up from recent lows, but this is more reflective of other USD/Asia pairs playing catch up to the topside than significant INR outperformance.
Fig 1: India Trade Balance Versus Citi Indian ToT Proxy
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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