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USD/JPY Extends Bounce Off Post-Intervention Support

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  • USD/JPY continues to grind higher, with the pair touching a new post-intervention recovery high in the European morning, extending the bounce off the 50-dma support that crosses today at 152.17. The moves put the JPY spot trade-weighted Index at around 3% off the pre-intervention lows, but tolerance of the authorities should get tested well ahead of reaching that mark.
  • With Japan having already spent already spent ~$60bln in reserves in this year's intervention phase, markets speculate on what other steps the BoJ could take to shore up the currency - with further rate hikes likely to remain part of the conversation across this week's real cash earnings data and National CPI on the 24th May.
  • The USD Index is firmer, with the greenback outperforming most others. The Riksbank decision saw Sweden join Switzerland in being one of the first European countries to kick off their easing cycle. EUR/SEK was higher in response, but outsized price action was broadly contained. Material currency weakness was avoided as the bank stressed that a follow-up rate cut in June was unlikely, leaving the rate path guidance in March intact.
  • Data remains few and far between Wednesday, with just March final wholesale trade sales and inventories data due. The speaker schedule is busier, as ECB's Wunsch & de Cos and Fed's Jefferson, Cook and Collins make appearances.
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  • USD/JPY continues to grind higher, with the pair touching a new post-intervention recovery high in the European morning, extending the bounce off the 50-dma support that crosses today at 152.17. The moves put the JPY spot trade-weighted Index at around 3% off the pre-intervention lows, but tolerance of the authorities should get tested well ahead of reaching that mark.
  • With Japan having already spent already spent ~$60bln in reserves in this year's intervention phase, markets speculate on what other steps the BoJ could take to shore up the currency - with further rate hikes likely to remain part of the conversation across this week's real cash earnings data and National CPI on the 24th May.
  • The USD Index is firmer, with the greenback outperforming most others. The Riksbank decision saw Sweden join Switzerland in being one of the first European countries to kick off their easing cycle. EUR/SEK was higher in response, but outsized price action was broadly contained. Material currency weakness was avoided as the bank stressed that a follow-up rate cut in June was unlikely, leaving the rate path guidance in March intact.
  • Data remains few and far between Wednesday, with just March final wholesale trade sales and inventories data due. The speaker schedule is busier, as ECB's Wunsch & de Cos and Fed's Jefferson, Cook and Collins make appearances.