USD/JPY Holds Above 151.00, Trade Balance & PMI Shortly

The JPY is the weakest performing currency for the second straight session with the USD/JPY again keeping pressure on the cycle high and November 2023 best at 151.91, this level marks the bull trigger and strength through here puts the pair at multi-decade highs. An erratic move lower could raise concern in the market as it would likely imply Japanese intervention, however the authorities have, so far, remained quiet on FX moves.

• USD/JPY pushed lower post the FOMC meeting, trading back to Wednesday's opening levels at 150.73, however the pair has now recovered about half of that move to close the session 0.24% higher at 151.22. As trading in Asia gets underway USDJPY is slightly lower at 151.20
• looking at technical levels, the key resistance level has held, for now, and the ensuing reversal saw USDJPY briefly print fresh session lows at 150.73 before paring some of these losses back above 151.00. Initial firm support remains much lower at 149.06 (20-day EMA) and 148.50 (50-day EMA), to the upside 151.82 (Mar 20 highs) above opens a move to 151.91/95 (High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance) while overall technical bulls remain in the driver’s seat.
• Attention now focuses on when the next BoJ rate hike will come, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Tuesday that the bank would maintain an accommodative policy and "proceed slowly" on raising rates, suggesting a cautious approach. While he did not outright deny the possibility of additional rate hikes, Ueda emphasized that future policy decisions would depend on economic and price outlook, indicating that inflation could lead to higher rates. He also mentioned considering a monetary policy response if the yen's decline significantly impacts the economic and price outlook.
• In the option expiry space we have the following for NY cut later: 150.00 ($573mln)
• Looking ahead: Trade Balance and Jibun Bank Japan PMI are due out this morning, while later in the day we have Tokyo Condominiums for Sales