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USD Mid-Range as Focus Narrows in on ECB, Fed & BoE Speakers

FOREX
  • The USD is mid-range Monday, with newsflow and market price action relatively scant so far in Europe. Lighter volumes aided by the formal beginning of the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays has muted price action, with the US 10y yield still yet to challenge last week's highs and make any material test on the key 4.20% mark. NOK and SEK are modestly the best performers so far Monday, with NZD the weakest as markets trim the solid gains posted last week on the back of renewed hiking expectations from the RBNZ.
  • EUR is weaker Monday, slipping against most others in G10 as EUR/USD slippage extends into NY hours. EUR/USD is now well within range of the Friday low and initial intraday weak support at 1.0762, and 1.0742 below. As mentioned above, small bid tone in the greenback is aiding the move.
  • Despite stabilising off the late January lows, EUR/GBP has struggled to build any bounce off lows, and the sell-on-rallies theme remains dominant - particularly evident in the reversal of the Feb 5 high of 0.8572. Sights are on 0.8493, the Aug 23 '23 low and a key support - and could come into play on a firm UK inflation release on Wednesday (consensus already looks for services CPI to tick up to 6.8% from 6.4% prior).
  • In typical Monday fashion, datapoints are few and far between, although the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations release should see some focus at 1600GMT/1100ET. The central bank speaker slate is busier, with ECB's Lane & Cipollone, Fed's Bowman, Barkin & Kashkari and BoE's Bailey all on the docket.
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