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USD/RUB Drifts Towards 75.00 as Macron Steps in to Mediate on West-Russia Tensions

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.23% lower this morning as the cross resumes its gradual grind lower despite softer oil prices. Talks with Macron were tentatively positive as he seeks to be the intermediary between the West and Russia.
  • Meanwhile, the US continues to ramp up threats and costs to Russia in the event of an invasion but threatening the closure of Nord Stream 2 on top of its pre-existing sanctions package.
  • Remarks from Putin seem a lot more measured and geared towards dialogue, but the more decisive signals will come from Russia’s written response to the US/NATO and whether it follows through on promises to pull back troops from Belarus following the end of its military drills on 20 Feb.
  • In the meanwhile, the period of relative calm has supported RUB ahead of the CBR on Friday with the MPC expected to tighten policy by +75-100bps.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have held steady around +113-115bp since 02 Feb, having fallen from a peak of +200bp on 27 Jan in line with a recovery in the RUB.
  • Intraday Sup1: 74.8956, Sup2: 74.6288, Res1: 75.5827, Res2: 76.015
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spread


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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