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Free AccessUSD/RUB Flirts With the 75.00 Handle as the CBR Meeting Approaches
- USD/RUB trades -0.09% lower this morning, mirroring early selling pressure on the BBDXY to return back below the 75.00 handle.
- The cross found support at 75.50 yesterday as Lavrov’s talks with UK’s Truss ended on a notably frosty note with Russia sounding frustrated over the UK’s unwillingness to consider its position.
- Lavrov warned that a unified EU/NATO response to its concerns would likely see talks collapse – resulting in marginal RUB weakness into the end of the session supported by a firmer USD post-CPI.
- For now, tensions remain elevated with military drills going on until Feb 20. The CBR is expected to raise rates +75-100bp today, with market consensus in favour of a larger step to tame still proinflationary conditions in January.
- 3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spreads have lifted back to +110bp this morning ahead of the meeting. A 100bp step is unlikely to see much change in RUB, while a +75bp hike may see RUB weaken if not complemented with appropriately hawkish forward guidance.
- Intraday Sup1: 74.266, Sup2: 74.0639, Res1: 75.5827, Res2: 76.015, Res3: 76.537
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.