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Free AccessUSD/RUB Gaps Lower, Despite Softer Oil Markets, Focus Shifts to Hawkish CBR
- USD/RUB gaps lower at the open on the back of early selling pressure in the BBDXY.
- RUB was the notable outperformer yesterday, with oil markets regaining some composure after an aggressive sell-off earlier in the week.
- Brent is trading marginally in the red this morning, following yesterday's surprise EIA inventory build. Markets will be watching the 73.34 level for signs of a return to levels around $75/bbl.
- Hawkish expectations for Friday's CBR may also be spurring RUB demand as markets expect the CBR to hike in the +75-100bp range amid acute overshooting pressures in CPI and runaway expectations.
- Our base case is for +75bp, with material risks to a one-off +100bp hike – however a moderating in high-frequency data in June may see the CBR favour +75bp and retain some optionality for further hikes should CPI data fail to moderate on expected base effects.
- Intraday Sup1: 73.5342, Sup2: 73.2181, Res1: 73.9435, Res2: 74.2486
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.