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Watching The 50-Day EMA


Bearish Focus


Updated Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US


Late Session Selling

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  • USD/RUB gaps lower at the open on the back of early selling pressure in the BBDXY.
  • RUB was the notable outperformer yesterday, with oil markets regaining some composure after an aggressive sell-off earlier in the week.
  • Brent is trading marginally in the red this morning, following yesterday's surprise EIA inventory build. Markets will be watching the 73.34 level for signs of a return to levels around $75/bbl.
  • Hawkish expectations for Friday's CBR may also be spurring RUB demand as markets expect the CBR to hike in the +75-100bp range amid acute overshooting pressures in CPI and runaway expectations.
  • Our base case is for +75bp, with material risks to a one-off +100bp hike – however a moderating in high-frequency data in June may see the CBR favour +75bp and retain some optionality for further hikes should CPI data fail to moderate on expected base effects.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.5342, Sup2: 73.2181, Res1: 73.9435, Res2: 74.2486