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USD/RUB Remains Bifurcated; Experts Doubtful of De-Escalation in Second Round Talks

  • USD/RUB still remain bifurcated in the onshore/offshore market with multiple onshore quotes – making trading challenging.
  • USD/RUB REGN rose +6.79% yesterday, closing around the 105.478 mark, while USD/RUB BGN fell -5.93% to close at 102.37.
  • The cross has also dipped further this morning, back towards the prior lows at 96.3980. CBR moves to add a 30% commission to FX exchanges adds more headwinds to the dollarisation push, but liquidity still remains a major issue.
  • Today’s focus will be on second round talks with Russian & Ukrainian delegations, although it seems unlikely that either side will favour a de-escalation. Russian troops continued to push to encircle Kyiv and from there will potentially look to extract a demilitarisation following a siege or threat of larger scale missile bombardment.
  • Rumours emerged yesterday of Russian talks with former Ukrainian president Yanukovych In Minsk as a potential replacement for Zelensky.
  • While this remains unconfirmed, his installation would not be welcomed by Ukrainians or the West – with sanctions likely to be imposed on the regime.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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