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USD/RUB Rips Below 70, API Inventories In Focus: 1.7m bbl Build Expected

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.14% lower this morning, treading water with the USD slightly firmer and oil prices a fraction lower -hovering below $86/bbl.
  • The cross fell -0.80% in yesterday's session to close below the 70 handle, driven lower by bullish energy prices, CBR follow-through from Friday and firmer global risk sentiment.
  • News of extended lockdowns in Moscow and St Petersburg has had limited impact on bullish RUB positioning for now, but the worst case scenarios for extensions into Jan would likely weigh on economic activity, should infection dynamics deteriorate further.
  • Oil markets continue to be buoyed by expectations for a clod November and substitution effects from sky high natgas prices with GS anticipating a move above $90/bbl.
  • API inventories will be monitored closely for signs of further supply-demand imbalances with analysts expecting a 1.7m bbl build this week. Momentum in USD/RUB remains to the downside, supported by CBR tightening and RUB-denominated profits at all-time highs from the energy sector.
  • Price action has moved into oversold territory on the RSI, but the RUB should remain an EM brightspot so long as the energy crunch persists. Intraday Sup1: 69.55, Sup2: 69.2871, Res1: 70.221, 70.5116
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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