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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
THB
USD/THB opened lower this morning, but found some support around the 33.40 level. We last tracked close to 33.51, around 0.30% stronger in baht terms versus yesterday's close. Still the pair is in new higher range of 33.40/33.75, compared to 32.60/33.00 through much of late January/early Feb. On the upside the 50-day EMA comes in close to 34.00, while the 20-day is around 33.26 on the downside.
- Outside of the rebound in US yields, the portfolio flow backdrop remains less supportive for baht. The chart below overlays the rolling foreign weekly and monthly net equity flow picture for Thailand. Both metrics continue to roll over.
- The USD/US yield rebound isn't helping, while neither is the range bound nature of Thai equities (stuck under 1700 in index terms).
- There is also less support on the debt flow front. Already in February we have seen $815.4mn in outflows, although historically equity flows have had a stronger correlation with baht moves.
- On the wires shortly is the BoT minutes from the January meeting. Most analysts expect the tightening cycle to continue in the early parts of 2023.
Fig 1: Thailand Net Equity Flows (USDmn)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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