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USD/THB Rebounds Towards 36.00, Customs Trade Data Due Soon

THB

In SEA FX, the USD is mostly supported. The general push back on Fed officials to early rate cuts is supporting the USD, while higher oil prices will also be weighing on some parts of the region.

  • USD/THB is firmer, back close to the 36.00 level. This is around 0.40% weaker in baht terms. We remain within recent ranges, with the recent test sub the 20-day EMA near 35.80, not proving sustainable. Recent highs rest at 36.185.
  • Coming up shortly is Jan customs trade data. The market consensus is for a shift back into a trade deficit (-$1425mn forecast).
  • More broadly, focus will remain on the interest rate outlook, with the BoT resisting calls so far from the PM to hold an emergency meeting to cut rates.
  • Local equities sit above 1400 for the SET, but have underperformed the global rebound in recent months. Offshore investor inflows have been picking up, so far this week +$300mn.
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