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USD/TRY Back Below 7.50; Greece-Turkey Relations Stable, but Rocky

  • USD/TRY pared early losses yesterday as the DXY pulled back from the 91.00 handle, bolstering broad risk sentiment across EM.
  • NATO talks with Greece, overall made some progress towards more amicable relations.
  • However, underlying skepticism remains that Turkey will seek to provoke Greece into collapsing talks through the introduction of inflammatory topics to justify the continuation of drilling activities on the premise that Greece won't talk about tough issues.
  • USD developments should drive price action today, but weekly focus remains on the CBRT - with the sell side on the fence between a hold or 50-100bp hike to reassert credibility post-Erdogan comments.
  • USD/TRY fell short of 7.5525 resistance as short-sellers emerged above the 7.50 handle.
  • Sell-side still content adding to shorts to target prior lows ~7.25 & below to 7.00, but will need to negotiate the 200dma.
  • Intraday Res1: 7.5109, Res2:7.5525, Sup1: 7.4679, Sup2: 7.4117
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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