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USD/TRY Drifts Higher as Positive TRY Catalysts Dwindle

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY continues to trade higher against the grain of USD weakness this morning.
  • The TRY outlook is looking significantly dimmer with limited positive catalysts in the mix:
  • Escalating virus conditions, diminished CBRT credibility, expectations for a premature easing cycle, poor international relations, volatile Erdogan leadership, dollarisation restarting, rising inflationary pressures and a precarious external balance.
  • These are just a just a few of the headwinds likely to weigh on TRY in the near-term.
  • Yesterday's dip in relations with the US regarding recognition of the Armenian genocide and removal from the F-35 programme seems to have reinforced the more bullish trend in USD/TRY which had mostly reversed in November on promises for market-appropriate tightening.
  • However, with that now out the window, there seems little on offer to keep the cross biased lower.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.3110, Sup2: 8.2538, Res1: 8.3689, Res2: 8.4454
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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