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USD/TRY Drifts Lower as Implied Vols Fall to 6-Month Lows

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades slightly higher at the open, mirroring price action in the BBDXY.
  • The cross continued to drift lower in yesterday's session, with TRY being among the better performing EM currencies at the moment.
  • 1m implied vols have dropped to Feb levels, leaving TRY carry as relative attractive at these levels, provided this stability can be sustained.
  • Focus will undoubtedly be on the CBRT meeting tomorrow, where the bar for hawkish rhetoric from Kavcioglu is increasing amid renewed upside pressure in CPI.
  • While the CBRT is expected to hold policy rates steady, markets will be looking for hawkish guidance from Kavcioglu to reassure markets that the CBRT will deliver market appropriate policy, should CPI continue to trend higher.
  • Industrial production will also be eyed at 08:00BST, expected to pick up marginally m/m, but decline sharply y/y.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.6251, Sup2: 8.5808, Res1: 8.6738, Res2: 8.6927


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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