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Free AccessUSD/TRY Drifts Lower as Sell-Side Makes Hawkish Adjustments to CBRT, CPI Forecasts
- USD/TRY opens a fraction lower, mirroring early weakness in the BBDXY.
- The cross traded choppily in yesterday's session around the upside CPI surprise, but managed to close -0.31% lower on the day.
- A swathe of sell-side revisions also emerged in the aftermath of the CPI print, with institutions trimming the size of cut estimates for 4Q21 and upgrading year-end inflation estimates.
- The net-effect of yesterday's print seems to be a hawkish one with markets pricing out premature cuts until 4Q21, reinforced by uncharacteristically supportive comments from Erdogan on inflation overnight.
- Markets, however, will still be concerned about Erdogan's influence on policy and prior comments RE easing in July-August – leaving a high bar for Kavcioglu to provide support to the lira by continuing the CBRT's hold stance amid rising CPI.
- For now, the cross continues to drift slowly towards 8.60 support, driven mostly by USD-side weakness ahead of the FOMC minutes.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.6399, Sup2: 8.5808, Res1: 8.6378, Res2: 8.6927
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.